Content :
- Tariff wars and a reshaping of AI’s global landscape
- Use international law to take on Pakistan-backed terror
Tariff wars and a reshaping of AI’s global landscape
Global Context of Tariff Wars and AI
- Post-2024 U.S. elections, tariffs have been reimposed, targeting key technology imports.
- These tariffs raise costs of AI infrastructure components like semiconductors and accelerators, disrupting global supply chains.
- Ironically, some companies may now relocate data centres to tariff-targeted countries like China.
Relevance : GS 3(Economy , Technology)
Practice Question : How are tariff wars reshaping the global landscape of Artificial Intelligence (AI) development? Discuss the strategic implications for India.(250 Words)
Economic Impacts of Tariffs on AI Development
- Tariffs on AI hardware rose up to 27% in 2025, increasing AI infrastructure costs in the U.S.
- While aimed at boosting domestic manufacturing (e.g., tripling U.S. semiconductor capacity by 2032), tariffs distort comparative advantage (Ricardian theory).
- Global supply chain fragmentation increases inefficiency, slows innovation, and raises uncertainty.
- Empirical evidence:
- 1 Standard Deviation. increase in tariffs → 0.4% output loss over 5 years.
- Reversing tariffs → potential 4% cumulative output gain.
Innovation and Strategic Shifts
- Tariffs can reduce:
- Incentive to innovate (less competition).
- Access to cutting-edge imported tech.
- “Deadweight loss” effect: No clear benefit to producers or consumers due to reduced trade.
- Demand for AI compute to grow massively:
- Power needs: 11 GW (2024) → 327 GW (2030).
- If unmet, U.S. competitiveness could decline.
Shifting Global Innovation Landscape
- Advanced AI development relies on access to high-cost compute and global collaboration.
- Tariffs widen inequality in AI capabilities between countries.
- Developed country tariffs: hinder tech transfer.
- Developing country tariffs: speed up tech transfer, but affect wages/innovation differently.
India’s Strategic Opportunity
- India is emerging as a “third option” between U.S.-China tech rivalry.
- IT export growth: 3.3%–5.1% YoY.
- Growth in AI and digital engineering sectors.
- Government efforts:
- Semiconductor investments (fab proposals, AMD’s $400M campus).
- 1.5 million engineering graduates/year – AI-capable talent pool.
Challenges for India
- Heavy reliance on imported AI hardware.
- Tariffs and supply disruptions may slow India’s AI ambitions.
- But also potential gain: Companies may relocate manufacturing and data centres to India.
Adaptive Technological Trends
- Capital substitution: High hardware costs → focus on:
- Algorithmic efficiency.
- Model compression.
- Software optimisation.
- Result: AI usage cost is falling (~40x per year), softening the blow for end-users.
Role of Regulation and Data
- Countries with lenient data policies and broader digital access may offset hardware disadvantages.
- Training data access can help maintain innovation pace despite higher infrastructure costs.
Rise of Decentralised AI Development
- Tariffs drive interest in application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs):
- 30% (2023) → 50% (2028) of AI workload accelerators.
- Historical parallel: Like mainframe to PC shift in the 1980s, AI may decentralise due to market constraints.
Conclusion
- Tariff-driven realignments may reduce economic efficiency, but also spur decentralised, adaptive AI innovation.
- Countries like India, despite vulnerabilities, are uniquely positioned to benefit from reshaped global tech dynamics.
Use international law to take on Pakistan-backed terror
Core Argument
- India should complement kinetic responses (e.g. Operation Sindoor) with non-kinetic strategies, particularly lawfare — using international law to achieve strategic objectives against Pakistan-backed terrorism.
Relevance : GS 2(International Relations) , GS 3(Internal Security)
Practice Question : How can international law be leveraged as an effective strategy against Pakistan-backed terrorism? Evaluate the potential and challenges of such a lawfare approach for India.(250 Words)
Leverage Existing International Conventions
- India and Pakistan are signatories to several regional and global anti-terrorism treaties:
- SAARC Convention on Suppression of Terrorism
- International Convention for the Suppression of the Financing of Terrorism (ICSFT)
- Terrorist Bombing Convention
- These conventions:
- Mandate states to criminalise terrorism.
- Prohibit terror financing (e.g. ICSFT Article 2(1), SAARC Protocol Article 6).
- Pakistan’s violations:
- Long-standing role in funding and sheltering terrorists (e.g. 26/11 Mumbai attacks, Pahalgam 2024).
- India must document and publicise violations using robust legal language.
Present a Legal Case Internationally
- Move beyond diplomatic statements — adopt a law-based narrative with:
- Verified facts
- Legal provisions violated
- References to UNSC resolutions, customary international law
- Send parliamentary delegations abroad to build diplomatic momentum using legal frameworks.
Engage the International Court of Justice (ICJ)
- Most terrorism treaties include compromissory clauses allowing ICJ jurisdiction:
- ICSFT (Article 24)
- Terrorist Bombing Convention (Article 20)
- Precedent: Ukraine sued Russia under ICSFT — India can similarly sue Pakistan.
- Benefits:
- Brings global attention
- Builds narrative of Pakistan as a violator of international norms
- Past use: India approached ICJ in Kulbhushan Jadhav case.
Jurisdictional and Legal Hurdles
- Pakistan’s reservation on ICSFT jurisdiction may limit legal action — but India can still file to raise the issue.
- India’s own reservation under Terrorist Bombing Convention is self-limiting — should be withdrawn to enable litigation.
- ICJ may interpret treaties narrowly (as in Ukraine v. Russia) — India must prepare strong evidence and legal arguments.
- Utilize dissenting opinions (e.g. Hilary Charlesworth) to frame persuasive positions.
Strategic Use of Lawfare
- Even if ICJ case outcome is uncertain, filing cases helps build international pressure.
- Lawfare can align with broader diplomatic and national security strategies.
- Helps isolate Pakistan globally and shape global opinion.
Need for Institutional Capacity
- India must build internal legal expertise in international law.
- Integrate international law into strategic policy and diplomatic training.
- Create permanent legal task forces for international legal battles.
Conclusion
- International law is an underutilised but powerful tool in India’s counterterrorism strategy.
- A coherent legal offensive, backed by facts and treaties, can help hold Pakistan accountable and strengthen India’s global position.
