Content
- India to be 3rd largest economy: PM, weeks after Trump’s swipe
- India–Japan Summit Outcomes
- Ice Age-era dragonfly (Crocothemis erythraea) in the Western Ghats
- China-India trade ties, US tariffs, and economic implications
- Cashless Bail in the US and India
- Daruma Doll, presented to PM Modi in Japan
India to be 3rd largest economy: PM, weeks after Trump’s swipe
Relevance : GS 3(Indian Economy)
Basics
- Event: PM Modi at the India-Japan Economic Forum in Tokyo declared that India will soon become the 3rd largest economy in the world.
- Japanese Commitment:
- ¥10 trillion (~$65 bn) private investment target in India over the next decade.
- Over $40 bn already invested; $13 bn in last two years alone.
- JBIC: India is the most “promising” destination.
- JETRO: 80% of Japanese companies want to expand in India; 75% already profitable.
- PM Modi’s Pitch: India is a springboard to the Global South.
- Trump’s Swipe (July 31, 2025):
- Criticised India for high tariffs and Russian crude imports.
- Imposed penalty tariffs (50%) on India.
- Called India’s economy “dead”.
- India termed the tariffs “unreasonable”.
India–Japan Summit Outcomes
- 13 outcomes including:
- India-Japan AI Initiative (collaboration in emerging technologies).
- Economic Security Initiative (supply chain resilience in pharma, minerals, new tech).
- SME Forum launched (business cooperation at grassroots level).
- Joint Credit Mechanism for green energy projects.
- Security & mineral resource cooperation.
- People-to-people exchange: 5 lakh people in total (incl. 50k Indian skilled/semi-skilled workers to Japan in 5 years).
Relevance : GS 2(International Relations)
Economic Dimension
- India is currently the 5th largest economy; projections (IMF, World Bank) place it at 3rd by 2027–28 after U.S. and China.
- Japanese investment builds long-term capital inflow and signals global investor confidence.
- India as “springboard to Global South” highlights its role as a hub for accessing emerging markets.
- Counter-narrative to Trump’s criticism: India presents itself as dynamic, growing, and investor-friendly.
Strategic & Geopolitical Dimension
- Japan–India convergence:
- Supply chain resilience to reduce overdependence on China.
- Energy security through joint financing in green energy & minerals.
- Security cooperation strengthens Indo-Pacific strategy.
- Balancing Act: India faces U.S. tariff friction while deepening ties with Japan – shows diversification of strategic/economic partners.
- People-to-people exchange → skill mobility enhances labour-market synergy and strengthens soft power.
Global Economic Positioning
- By linking its growth to Global South markets, India positions itself as a bridge between developed and developing nations.
- Japanese investments align with India’s Make in India, Digital India, and Green Energy missions.
- The narrative of “capital multiplies in India” is designed to boost global investor sentiment.
Challenges Ahead
- Tariff War with U.S. could hit exports and worsen trade deficit.
- Currency pressures (rupee volatility) may dampen some benefits of FDI.
- Maintaining ease of doing business and policy stability will be critical to sustain Japanese and other foreign investments.
- India must navigate triangular relations: U.S. (tariff disputes), Russia (oil imports), Japan (strategic partner).
Ice Age-era dragonfly (Crocothemis erythraea) in the Western Ghats:
Basics
- Species: Crocothemis erythraea (scarlet dragonfly).
- Genus in India: Only two known species –
- Crocothemis servilia → common in lowland regions.
- Crocothemis erythraea → found in high-altitude habitats (Europe, Asia, Himalayas, and now Western Ghats).
- Rediscovery: Confirmed in the southern Western Ghats (Kerala, Munnar high ranges).
- Confusion: Previously misidentified as C. servilia due to morphological similarities.
Relevance : GS 3(Environment and Ecology)
Background
- 2018: First photographic record of a suspected C. erythraea specimen in Munnar (Kerala).
- 2019–2023: Multiple expeditions conducted to verify presence.
- 2021: Initially included in Kerala’s odonata monograph but later removed due to skepticism.
- 2023–24: Detailed study published in the International Journal of Odonatology reconfirmed its presence.
Scientific Significance
- Ice Age Colonisation:
- Species colonised southern India during the Pleistocene Ice Age.
- Cooler conditions allowed temperate fauna to extend southward into Western Ghats.
- Refugial Population: Western Ghats acted as a refuge for Ice Age species, preserving biodiversity.
- Biogeography Insight: Provides evidence of historical climatic shifts and species migration patterns.
Ecological Insights
- C. servilia: Common in lowland ponds, wetlands, agricultural fields.
- C. erythraea: Prefers high-altitude ecosystems (Western Ghats, Himalayas, temperate Asia/Europe).
- Western Ghats = climatic island supporting both tropical and temperate species.
Conservation Importance
- Western Ghats: UNESCO World Heritage Site, global biodiversity hotspot.
- Rediscovery highlights the importance of continuous faunal surveys.
- High-altitude species may be climate-sensitive → vulnerable to global warming.
- Monitoring needed to prevent habitat loss from plantations, tourism, and climate change.
Research Contribution
- Led by Kalesh Sadasivan (study’s lead author).
- Published in International Journal of Odonatology.
- Confirms co-existence of both Crocothemis species in India for the first time.
Comprehensive Takeaway
- Rediscovery corrects earlier misidentification and adds to India’s odonate diversity.
- Shows Western Ghats’ role as a climatic refuge since the Ice Age.
- Strengthens argument for climate-linked species distribution studies.
- Reinforces need for long-term monitoring and conservation of high-altitude ecosystems in India.
China-India trade ties, US tariffs, and economic implications:
- Context:
- US doubled tariffs on Indian exports (up to 50%).
- India–China trade relations under scrutiny amid rising Chinese imports and India’s attempts to reduce dependence.
- PM Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping set to meet at the SCO summit.
- India’s Position:
- India pulled out of RCEP (2019), fearing Chinese dominance in trade.
- Banned Chinese apps, restricted FDI from China after border clashes (Galwan, 2020).
- Despite restrictions, imports from China continue to surge.
- US Factor:
- Trump’s tariff wars affected both India and China.
- US tariffs on Brazil and India (50% steel, 30% aluminum) prompted rethinking of alliances.
Relevance : GS 2(International Relations) , GS 3(Indian Economy)
India’s Growing Dependence on Chinese Imports
- Data (Chart 1):
- 2014–15: Imports from China ~ $60 bn; Exports ~ $12 bn → trade deficit ~$48 bn.
- 2024–25: Imports from China ~ $113 bn; Exports ~ $14 bn → trade deficit ~$99 bn.
- Key Drivers:
- Machinery, electronics, pharma raw materials, solar equipment.
- India’s inability to build alternative supply chains.
- Problem: India’s exports to China remain stagnant while imports surged, worsening dependence.
China’s Strength in Manufacturing (Chart 2, 3 & 4)
- China vs World:
- Manufactures ~31% of world’s output (highest globally).
- US ~16%, India only ~3%.
- Gross Production Share:
- China: 35% of global share; India: 3%.
- Value Added Share:
- China: 29% global share; India: 3%.
- Implication: China’s dominance in global manufacturing creates structural imbalance, making India vulnerable.
India’s Sectoral Growth (Table)
- CAGR (2019–20 onwards):
- Agriculture: 4.7%
- Industry: 4.4%
- Manufacturing: 4.3%
- Services: 5.4%
- Observation: Services lead growth, but manufacturing lags, limiting India’s capacity to compete with China.
Structural Weakness in India
- Exports: India lags in machinery, electronics, high-value manufacturing.
- Imports: Reliance on China for intermediate goods continues.
- Deficit: India’s trade deficit with China exceeds $100 bn annually.
- Outcome: Manufacturing bottlenecks prevent India from scaling globally competitive industries.
China’s Strategy & Leverage
- Global Manufacturing Hub: Supplies low-cost products across sectors.
- Alternative to US/EU Markets: China using India and Global South as outlets during Western sanctions.
- Geo-strategic Pressure: Trade dependence overlaps with border tensions → dual vulnerability for India.
India’s Alternatives
- Nearshoring & Friend-shoring:
- Attract Western companies seeking non-China supply chains (esp. post-COVID).
- Mexico, Vietnam, Indonesia emerging as alternatives; India struggles due to regulatory, infrastructure gaps.
- PLI Schemes (Production Linked Incentives): Attempt to boost domestic manufacturing in electronics, semiconductors, textiles, etc.
- Strengthening Domestic Market: Need to expand capacity in key industries (electronics, pharma, renewables).
China vs India: Contrasting Roles
- China: Seen as systemic rival by US/EU; but retains dominance in global manufacturing.
- India: Positioned as alternative partner but lacks scale and competitiveness.
- Challenge: India risks being “overwhelmed” by Chinese imports unless structural reforms succeed.
China is not India’s Natural Partner
- Political Mistrust: Border tensions (Galwan, Arunachal incursions).
- China–Pakistan Axis: CPEC, Pakistan military backing → security risk for India.
- Democracy vs Authoritarianism: Systemic divergence in governance, rules, transparency.
- Upshot: Partnership difficult beyond transactional trade.
The Upshot
- Structural Challenge: India’s dependence on Chinese imports is deep and growing.
- Strategic Implication:
- India risks economic vulnerability + trade imbalance → potential national security issue.
- Way Forward:
- Strengthen manufacturing base.
- Diversify imports via Japan, Korea, EU, ASEAN.
- Deepen supply chain resilience with domestic reforms + foreign investment.
Cashless Bail in the US and India:
Basics
- Bail Concept: A legal provision ensuring an accused does not remain in custody during trial, provided they do not abscond or tamper with evidence.
- Types of Bail:
- Cash bail – Accused deposits money to secure release.
- Bond/Personal bond – Release on personal surety, promise, or recognisance without cash.
- Surety bond – Another person guarantees bail conditions.
- Primary Concern of Courts: Prevent flight risk, tampering with evidence, or influencing witnesses.
Relevance : GS 2(Judiciary – Bails)
Cashless Bail in the US
- Trump’s Executive Order (2020): Targeted jurisdictions with cashless bail, citing it led to more crime and repeated offences.
- Reality:
- Cash bail often burdens poor people disproportionately.
- Minor offences can still lead to jail if unable to pay bail.
- Example: Kalief Browder, accused of stealing a backpack at 16, spent 3 years in jail (unable to pay $3000 bail); later committed suicide.
- Criticism of Cash Bail:
- Discriminatory towards economically weaker sections.
- Leads to over-crowding of jails.
- Creates inequality – rich offenders can easily pay, poor remain jailed.
Bail in India
- Legal Framework: Chapter 35 of Bharatiya Nagarik Suraksha Sanhita (BNSS) 2023; previously CrPC, 1973.
- Two Main Forms:
- Bond – Accused signs bond assuring court of appearance. Sureties may also guarantee.
- Bail Bond – Accused (or surety) deposits cash/property as security.
- Systemic Issues in India:
- Many undertrials remain in jail despite being granted bail, as they cannot furnish surety or pay small amounts.
- Example: Supreme Court highlighted cases where accused remained jailed for failing to pay bail as low as ₹5,000.
- Law Commission (268th Report, 2017): Cash bail system violates “constitutional ethos”.
Problems with Current Bail System
- US:
- Perpetuates inequality between rich and poor.
- Doesn’t reduce crime significantly as claimed by proponents.
- India:
- Undertrial population extremely high (over 70% of prison inmates).
- Bail process delayed due to lack of legal awareness and resources.
- Bail conditions (surety, bond) often discriminatory against poor.
- Frequent non-compliance despite SC guidelines.
Judicial Interventions in India
- Supreme Court (2023): Directed lower courts to avoid unnecessary pre-trial detentions due to inability to furnish surety.
- District Legal Services Authority (DLSA): Directed to provide legal aid, verify accused’s background, and ensure bail implementation.
- Legal Aid Services: Encouraged to assist accused unable to meet bail requirements.
Need for Reform
- Shift from Monetary Bail: Move towards personal recognisance bonds and non-monetary conditions.
- Standardization: Bail assessment should be based on risk of flight, not wealth.
- Human Rights Approach: Prolonged detention without trial undermines Article 21 (Right to Life and Personal Liberty).
- Systemic Solutions:
- Simplify bail procedures.
- Introduce pre-trial assessment tools.
- Ensure legal aid for marginalized accused.
- Reform judicial attitudes that favour incarceration.
Comparative Takeaway
- US: Problem lies in overuse of cash bail → reforms needed to reduce wealth-based incarceration.
- India: Problem lies in under-implementation of bail orders → accused remain in jail despite bail granted.
- Common Issue: Both systems disproportionately affect the poor, violating principles of equality and fair trial.
Daruma Doll, presented to PM Modi in Japan:
Basics
- Daruma Doll:
- A traditional Japanese wish doll, usually made of papier-mâché.
- Symbolizes perseverance, determination, and good luck.
- Typically painted in red; sizes vary from a few inches to several feet.
- Unique feature: round, hollow shape that allows it to return upright when tipped over → symbolizes resilience.
- Often features the word “luck” in Kanji.
- Customary Practice:
- One eye left blank; the owner colours one eye when setting a goal.
- The second eye is coloured upon achieving the goal.
- Embodies the Japanese proverb: “Fall seven times, stand up eight.”
Relevance : GS 1(Culture , Heritage) ,GS 2(International Relations)
India Connection
- Origin:
- Modelled on Bodhidharma, a 5th-century Indian monk from Kanchipuram (Tamil Nadu).
- Bodhidharma is regarded as the founder of Zen Buddhism and is known in Japan as Daruma Daishi.
- Historical Belief:
- Bodhidharma meditated for 9 years in a cave in China’s Henan province.
- His image (no limbs, eyes closed) influenced the design of the Daruma Doll.
- Cultural Link:
- Word ‘Daruma’ derived from Sanskrit ‘Dharma’, though it has no direct equivalent in Japanese/Chinese.
- Represents India-Japan civilizational ties through Buddhism.
The Temple
- Shorinzan Daruma-ji Temple, Takasaki, Gunma Prefecture (built 1697).
- Considered the place of origin of Daruma Dolls.
- Associated with success and victory; frequented before elections and business ventures.
- Takasaki is the largest producer of Daruma dolls.
- Chief Priest Seishi Hirose:
- Belongs to the Obaku sect of Zen Buddhism.
- Graduate of Komazawa University.
- Has visited India 40 years ago, highlighting longstanding Indo-Japanese Buddhist links.
Symbolism
- Spiritual Meaning:
- Perseverance in adversity (reflects Bodhidharma’s meditative endurance).
- Hope and success in personal/professional life.
- Practical Meaning:
- Used in goal-setting rituals in Japan.
- Popular among politicians, business leaders, and common people.
Significance of Gift to Modi
- Reinforces civilizational ties between India and Japan through Buddhism.
- Symbolic gesture linking India’s Bodhidharma legacy with Japanese tradition.
- Highlights diplomatic soft power and cultural symbolism in international relations.
Comprehensive Takeaway
- Daruma Doll = Resilience + Perseverance + Goal-fulfilment.
- Cultural Bridge: Represents shared Buddhist heritage of India & Japan.
- Soft Diplomacy: Gifting the doll to PM Modi was a symbolic act reinforcing historical, religious, and cultural bonds.
- Modern Relevance: Used in politics and business in Japan to inspire success, reflecting the continued importance of cultural traditions in contemporary society.
