India’s Progress on Climate Targets 

Why in News?

• Recent Aravalli judgment revived debate on environmental governance, mining, and climate commitments.
• Over 10 years since India’s climate pledges under the Paris Agreement, prompting evaluation of delivery vs outcomes.
• Updated data on emissions intensity, renewable capacity, and forest carbon sinks (ISFR 2023, CEA projections).
• Relevance to India’s 2070 Net Zero credibility.

Relevance

• GS-3 | Environment & Climate Change
  • Paris Agreement commitments, emissions intensity vs absolute emissions
  • Renewable energy transition, coal dependence, storage bottlenecks

India’s Climate Commitments (Paris, 2015)

• Reduce emissions intensity of GDP by 33–35% from 2005 levels by 2030.
• Achieve 40% non-fossil power capacity by 2030 (later raised to ~50%).
• Install 175 GW renewables by 2022.
• Create 2.5–3 billion tonnes CO₂e forest carbon sink by 2030.
• Principle: Common but Differentiated Responsibilities (CBDR).

Emissions Intensity: Success with Caveats

• Achievement:
  • Emissions intensity reduced by ~36% by 2020 (2005 baseline).
  • Target met a decade early.
• Drivers:
  • Rapid non-fossil capacity expansion (solar, wind, hydro, nuclear).
  • Structural shift towards services & digital economy.
  • Efficiency schemes: PAT, UJALA → measurable energy savings.
• Limitation:
  • Absolute emissions remain high (~2,959 MtCO₂e in 2020).
  • India is the 3rd largest absolute emitter globally.
• Conceptual Issue:
  • Partial decoupling: GDP growth > emissions growth.
  • Intensity ↓, but emissions ↑ in cement, steel, transport.

Renewable Energy: Capacity–Generation Mismatch

• Headline Success:
  • Non-fossil capacity rose from ~29.5% (2015) to ~51.4% (June 2025).
  • Solar: ~3 GW (2014) → ~111 GW (2025).
• Ground Reality:
  • Renewables contribute only ~22% of electricity generation (2024–25).
  • Coal (~240–253 GW) still provides >70% of electricity.
• Reasons:
  • Low capacity factors of solar/wind.
  • Intermittency and grid integration limits.
  • Delays in land acquisition and transmission.
• Targets Missed:
  • 175 GW by 2022 not achieved.
  • 500 GW by 2030 feasible but execution-heavy.

Storage Deficit: Core Bottleneck

• CEA projection (2029–30): 336 GWh storage needed.
• Actual operational storage (Sept 2025): ~500 MWh.
• Without storage:
  • Renewables cannot replace coal baseload.
  • Grid stability risks increase.

Forest Carbon Sink: Numbers vs Ecology

• Official Claim:
  • Total forest carbon stock: 30.43 billion tonnes CO₂e.
  • Additional sink since 2005: ~2.29 billion tonnes.
  • Target likely met numerically by 2030.
• Data Issues:
  • “Forest cover” includes:
    • Plantations, eucalyptus, tea, mango orchards.
    • Any land >1 ha with >10% canopy.
  • Natural forests vs plantations not differentiated.
• Governance Gaps:
  • CAMPA funds (~₹95,000 crore) under-utilised (e.g., Delhi ~23% usage).
  • Green India Mission (Revised, 2025) equates plantations with regeneration.
• Climate Stress:
  • Warming and water stress reduce actual carbon assimilation despite “greening” signals.

Structural Contradictions Highlighted

• Intensity gains coexist with rising absolute emissions.
• Renewable capacity growth masks coal-centric generation reality.
• Forest targets met administratively, not ecologically.
• Coal phase-down roadmap remains opaque.

The Road Ahead

• Battery & pumped storage scale-up at mission mode.
• Transparent coal transition timetable aligned with 2070 net zero.
• Industrial decarbonisation (steel, cement, transport).
• Forest governance reform: quality, biodiversity, survivability metrics.
• Data transparency: sector-wise, region-wise emissions tracking.
• Stronger Centre–State coordination on grids and land.

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