Current Affairs 28 May 2025

Content :

1. As U.S. Pulls Back, China is Primed to Expand its Soft Power
2. Why Has the Monsoon Come Early This Year?
3. Union Govt. Invites Suggestions on Draft Registration Bill
4. IMD Retains ‘Above Normal’ Rainfall Outlook for Monsoon
5. Developing Nations Face ‘Tidal Wave’ of China Debt as Repayments Breach Records

 As U.S. pulls back, China is primed to expand its soft power

U.S. Retreat from Global Commitments

• Under Trump, the U.S. exited major international agreements (e.g., WHO, Paris Agreement).
• The U.S. accused WHO of bias and demanded disproportionate financial contributions.
• It also withdrew funding from the UNFCCC and backed off climate finance commitments.

Relevance : GS 2(International Relations , Global Order)

China’s Expanding Financial Footprint

• China pledged an additional $500 million to WHO over 5 years.
• Its share in WHO’s assessed contributions rose from 6.5% (2015-16) to 15% (2024-25).
• China now contributes the second-highest amount to WHO, trailing the U.S. (~20%).

Shift in Climate Financing Influence

• China’s share in UNFCCC core funding is now 17%, second only to the U.S. (22%).
• With U.S. retreating, China is poised to expand influence in climate governance.

Rise as a Global Creditor

• China has become the world’s largest bilateral lender, holding 26% of global bilateral sovereign debt (up from ~1% in 2003).
• In contrast, the U.S.’s share fell from 36% (1973) to 4% (2023).
• Strategic investments via Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and loans have entrenched China’s leverage in Asia, Africa, and Latin America.

Shifting Global Perceptions

• A 2024 Pew Research Center survey showed 60%+ respondents across 21 countries acknowledge China’s major economic influence.
• The Democracy Perception Index (2024) found:
  • People in 76 out of 96 countries had a more favorable view of China than the U.S.
  • Only 20 countries viewed the U.S. more favorably.
• Growing perception of China as a reliable global partner in contrast to the U.S.’s perceived unreliability.

Implications for Global Governance

• China is filling leadership gaps in multilateral institutions left by the U.S.
• Its strategy leverages soft power via financial aid, health diplomacy, climate action, and infrastructure.
• The quote by China’s Ambassador — “We have to adapt ourselves to multilateral organisations without the Americans” — highlights China’s pragmatic approach to leadership voids.

Conclusion

• The U.S.’s inward turn has created vacuums in global governance.
• China is not just catching up; it is actively recasting the global order through economic and diplomatic means.
• This signals a rebalancing of global power, with long-term implications for international norms and alliances.

Why has the monsoon come early this year?

Early Monsoon Arrival in 2025

• Monsoon reached Kerala on May 24, a week early (normal date: June 1).
• This is the earliest onset since 2009, which saw monsoon on May 23.

Relevance : GS 1(Geography – Monsoon)

Is Early Onset Predictable?

• No definitive “secret sauce” behind early arrival; highly variable.
• Early onset doesn’t guarantee a good monsoon; late onset (>2 weeks) usually correlates with deficit rainfall.
• Onset predictions are complex and uncertain.

Scientific Understanding of Onset

• No unified theory on monsoon onset; multiple interacting systems.
• Trough movement from NW Pacific → Andaman Sea → Bay of Bengal → Kerala is key but poorly understood.
• El Niño/La Niña offer no reliable predictability for onset timing.

Climate Change and Delay in Onset

• Onset has been systematically delayed since 1970s, potentially due to:
  • Natural decadal variability.
  • Global warming’s influence on monsoon systems.
• However, early onsets still occur despite general delay trend (e.g., 2025).

Comparing 2025 with 2009

• 2009 was a mild El Niño year and ended in monsoon drought.
• 2025 has seen record warmth (1.2°C above pre-industrial levels).
• SST anomalies in 2024 showed mixed El Niño/La Niña traits, complicating forecasts.
• Currently, neutral ENSO and IOD conditions predicted.

External Drivers of Early Onset

• Increased pre-monsoon cyclones may be pulling monsoon trough northward earlier.
• Western coast low-pressure systems likely helped early arrival in 2025.
• Cyclonic activity linked to Arctic warming and wind shifts in Arabian Sea.
• Typhoons in Pacific can delay onset by pulling moisture away.

Forecast Complexity

• Even with good onset prediction, seasonal distribution still erratic.
• Early onset doesn’t imply:
  • Normal seasonal rainfall.
  • No floods/droughts within season.

Changing Rainfall Patterns

• Monsoon withdrawal is shifting; SW and NE monsoons merging in regions.
• Intra-seasonal rainfall is uneven – both floods and droughts increasing.

Conclusion

• Causes of early onset remain uncertain and multifactorial.
• Ongoing need for:
  • Deeper insights into monsoon dynamics.
  • Better models to include climate change, ENSO, cyclones, and Arctic impacts.

Union govt. invites suggestions on draft Registration Bill

Purpose and Scope

• Seeks to replace the 117-year-old Registration Act, 1908, which governs registration of documents affecting immovable property and related transactions.
• Aims to modernize and digitize the property registration process in India.

Relevance : GS 2(Governance)

Key Digital Reforms

• Online registration enabled: Electronic presentation and admission of documents.
• Provision for electronic registration certificates.
• Digital maintenance of records for greater transparency and ease of access.
• Electronic integration with other record-keeping systems (e.g., land records, property databases).

Verification and Inclusion

• Offers Aadhaar-based authentication.
• Also allows alternative identity verification mechanisms for individuals without Aadhaar or who choose not to use it—ensuring inclusivity.

User-Centric Approach

• Emphasizes plain language for documents, making legal procedures more citizen-friendly.
• Focus on transparent and simplified procedures, especially to aid individual citizens and small businesses.
• Aims to ensure legal certainty without compromising on procedural safeguards.

Institutional Context

• The administration of the 1908 Act was transferred to the Department of Land Resources under the Ministry of Rural Development in 2006.
• The Department has invited public suggestions on the draft law via its website.

Significance

• Reflects a move towards digital governance in land administration.
• Addresses long-standing issues like cumbersome paperwork, corruption, and lack of access to property registration services.
• Represents an important step in land reforms, potentially improving ease of doing business and reducing property disputes.

IMD retains ‘above normal’ rainfall outlook for monsoon

Monsoon Forecast (June–September 2025)

• IMD retains ‘above normal’ rainfall forecast at 106% of the Long Period Average (LPA), i.e., ~92 cm of rainfall.
• Slightly higher than the April forecast of 105% (91.3 cm) of LPA.
• June alone likely to record 8% more rainfall than the average 16.7 cm.

Relevance : GS 1(Geography) ,GS 3(Disaster Management )

Regional Distribution

• Above-normal rainfall expected across most parts of India.
• Exceptions: Northeastern and Northwestern India may receive below or normal rainfall.
• Central India, Odisha, and parts of Rajasthan expected to receive 6% more than normal rainfall.

Early Monsoon Onset and Fast Progress

• Kerala monsoon onset: May 24 (a week earlier than the usual June 1).
• Mumbai monsoon onset: May 26 (earliest in 35 years, 2 weeks ahead of schedule).
• Fast advance through Karnataka, Goa, and central Maharashtra.

Scientific and Climatic Factors

• Factors aiding early and strong monsoon:
  • Pre-cyclonic circulation.
  • Favourable temperature patterns over the Tibetan Plateau.
  • Absence of El Niño, which weakens monsoons in ~60% of occurrence years.

Impact on Heatwaves

• Despite possible slowing of monsoon’s progress towards Delhi, the strong monsoon is likely to prevent heatwaves in North India, especially the capital region in June.

Farmer Advisory

• Maharashtra government advises farmers to delay sowing, despite early rains — to avoid crop damage due to potential uneven rainfall in the early monsoon phase.

Implications

• Positive outlook for agriculture and water availability, especially in central India.
• Reduced heatwave risks offer relief in heavily populated urban centers.
• Strong monsoon could support Kharif sowing, hydroelectric power generation, and reservoir replenishment.

Developing nations face ‘tidal wave’ of China debt as repayments breach records

Rising Debt Crisis Among Poor Nations

• The poorest 75 countries are projected to make record-high debt repayments to China in 2025, totaling $22 billion.
• This marks a historic peak in repayments, signaling mounting financial pressure on low-income nations.

Relevance : GS 2(International Relations)

From Lender to Collector: China’s Transition

• China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in the 2010s led to massive loans for infrastructure like ports, railways, and roads across Africa, Asia, and the Pacific.
• However, new Chinese lending has significantly declined.
• China is now seen less as a lender and more as a debt collector, as per Lowy Institute analysis.

Lowy Institute Findings

• Based on World Bank data, the report shows:
  • Poor nations are increasingly struggling to repay Chinese loans.
  • High interest costs and principal repayments are worsening fiscal vulnerabilities in debtor countries.
  • This situation may hinder economic development, public spending, and poverty alleviation efforts.

China’s Response

• China’s Foreign Ministry stated it was “not aware of the specifics” of the report.
• Reiterated that China’s financing with developing countries “abides by international conventions”.
• Stressed that cooperation is legal and aligned with mutual benefit narratives.

Geopolitical and Economic Implications

• Rising debt repayments could:
  • Trigger debt distress or defaults in vulnerable economies.
  • Increase dependency on debt restructuring, especially through the G20 Common Framework or bilateral negotiations.
  • Lead to geopolitical influence concerns, with critics accusing China of “debt-trap diplomacy”.

Broader Context

• The shift from high lending to high repayments illustrates:
  • The long-term consequences of infrastructure-based development models funded through external loans.
  • Need for sustainable debt management, transparency, and multilateral cooperation in global finance.