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Gaza War Stalls IMEC, India’s Key Trade Corridor

IMEC Overview

  • Announced at G20 2023 to connect India–Middle East–Europe via two corridors (Eastern maritime + rail, Western maritime + European rail).
  • Aims to cut India–Europe transit time by ~40% vs Red Sea route.
  • Includes trade, digital, electricity, hydrogen links; tariff & insurance standardisation; job creation; emission reduction.

Relevance : GS 3(Infrastructure)

Structure

  • Eastern leg: India’s west coast → UAE ports → freight rail across UAE–Saudi–Jordan → Haifa (Israel).
  • Western leg: Haifa → Greece/Italy ports → European rail network.

Pre-war Political Window

  • Arab–Israel normalisation (Saudi expected to join).
  • Geo-economic gains took precedence over Palestine issue.
  • Enabled multi-state cooperation with EU, Gulf, and India.

Gaza War Impact

  • 61,000 killed in Gaza; deepened Arab public opposition to Israel.
  • Saudi–Israel normalisation stalled; Jordan–Israel ties at historic low.
  • Political legitimacy for Israel-linked corridor collapsed.
  • Red Sea attacks disrupted shipping, raising insurance and freight costs.

Operational Constraints Post-war

  • Western leg politically blocked; transit rights unavailable.
  • Higher marine insurance premiums in conflict zone.
  • Delay in tariff harmonisation, financing, and customs integration.
  • Investor confidence weakened.

Current Feasibility

  • Eastern leg viable due to IndiaUAESaudi ties (e.g., UPI integration).
  • Western leg uncertain until Middle East stability restored.
  • Corridor now a “day-after” plan, contingent on political resolution.

Strategic Stakes for India

  • Diversifies away from Suez chokepoint.
  • Strengthens Gulf–India–EU value chains.
  • Enhances India’s role in global connectivity diplomacy.

Policy Priorities for India

  • Fast-track Eastern leg with binding UAE/Saudi agreements.
  • Create multilateral corridor insurance pool.
  • Keep technical work alive for Western leg without political linkage.
  • Upgrade west-coast ports & logistics for immediate readiness.
  • Maintain backchannel diplomacy with Israel, Jordan, EU.

Risks

  • Political: Prolonged conflict freezes Western leg.
  • Economic: Security costs make IMEC uncompetitive.
  • Technical: Fragmented standards slow interoperability.

Mitigation

  • Modular implementation; risk-sharing finance models.
  • Early standard-setting; customs digitalisation.
  • Security cooperation in Red Sea & Arabian Sea.

August 2025
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