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IEA World Energy Outlook 2024 — The Annual Energy Bible
Released October 2024 · IEA’s flagship annual publication · Most authoritative global energy analysis
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IEA World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2024
International Energy Agency · October 2024 · Headquarters: Paris, France
2024
💡 What Is the IEA and Why Does UPSC Care?
The International Energy Agency (IEA) was established in 1974 after the OPEC oil crisis — to ensure energy security for member nations (mostly OECD developed countries). Today it’s the world’s most authoritative energy analyst. Its World Energy Outlook (WEO) — published every October — maps global energy demand, supply, investment, and emissions under multiple scenarios. India is an Association member of the IEA since 2017 (not a full member — IEA membership requires OECD membership). UPSC tests both the content of IEA reports AND knowledge about the IEA itself.
IEA WEO 2024 — Three Scenarios (The Framework)
- STEPS (Stated Policies Scenario): What happens if countries implement only their CURRENT stated policies — no new ambition. Energy demand and emissions projections based on today’s reality.
- APS (Announced Pledges Scenario): What if ALL national energy and climate targets and pledges (including net-zero goals) are met in full and on time — gives a “best case with current pledges” picture.
- NZE (Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario): The pathway required to reach net zero by 2050 and limit warming to 1.5°C — maps out what would need to happen. Described as an “increasingly narrow path.”
🔴 IEA WEO 2024 — Key Findings
- Peak emissions approaching: The world is close to peaking CO₂ emissions by around 2025 — but after peaking, emissions would NOT decline substantially under current policies without more government action
- Clean energy surge: More than 560 GW of renewables was added in 2023. Even under current policies, renewables will reach 10,000 GW by 2030 — enough to push power sector emissions into decline.
- Energy security + climate linked: Extreme weather events (intensified by high emissions) are already posing energy security risks. In 2023, ~800 TWh of electricity was used for cooling during extreme heat events (vs <300 TWh in the 1990s)
- Fossil fuel oversupply: WEO 2024 projects an overhang of oil and LNG supply during the second half of the 2020s — a major market shift from scarcity to buyers’ market for fossil fuels. Has implications for India’s energy import costs.
- 750 million without electricity: Mainly in Sub-Saharan Africa. 2 billion without clean cooking. The NZE scenario is the only one providing universal energy access by 2030.
- Geopolitical risks: ~20% of global oil and LNG supplies flow through the Strait of Hormuz — highlighting energy security vulnerabilities. India imports ~85% of its oil needs → vulnerable.
- Electricity demand surge: Data centres, AI, and EV charging are driving new electricity demand peaks — demanding faster grid expansion and storage solutions.
- India in WEO 2024:
- India saw the second-largest absolute energy demand growth in 2024 (after China)
- India’s clean energy investment: US$68 billion in 2023 — up 40% from 2016-20 average. Nearly half in solar PV.
- India’s energy demand growth is on track to outpace all other regions by 2050
- India’s target: Net zero by 2070 | 500 GW non-fossil capacity by 2030 | 50% energy from renewables by 2030
- Clean energy investment needs to rise a further 20% to get India fully on track for its goals
IEA — Key Institution Facts for UPSC
- Established: November 1974 | after OPEC oil embargo (1973)
- Headquarters: Paris, France
- Members: 31 member countries (all OECD members) | 13 association members
- India: Association member since March 2017 (not full member — would require joining OECD first)
- Mission: Energy security, economic development, and clean energy. The “Three Es”: Energy security, Economic growth, Environmental sustainability
- Key publications: World Energy Outlook (annual, October) | World Energy Investment (annual) | Global Energy Review (annual) | Electricity Market Report
- IEA Global Energy Review 2025 (latest): Total energy-related CO₂ hit all-time high of 37.8 Gt CO₂ in 2024. Solar + wind + nuclear deployment prevented 2.6 billion tonnes additional CO₂. India’s energy CO₂ rose 5.3% in 2024 — highest rate among major economies.
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UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2024 — “No More Hot Air…Please!”
Released October 2024 · 15th edition · The annual NDC vs. reality check report
🌿
UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2024: “No More Hot Air…Please!”
United Nations Environment Programme · October 24, 2024 · 15th Edition
2024
💡 What Is the “Emissions Gap”? — Think of It as a Budget Shortfall
Every country makes climate pledges called NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions) — their plan to cut emissions under the Paris Agreement. The UNEP Emissions Gap Report asks: even if all these pledges are actually kept, how much would global temperatures still rise? The “gap” is the difference between where emissions NEED to be (to limit warming to 1.5°C or 2°C) and where they ARE headed under current pledges. Think of it like a household budget: the target says “spend ₹5,000 this month,” but even after all your promised cuts, you’re still spending ₹12,000. The Emissions Gap Report is the annual auditor that measures this shortfall.
1.5°C
Paris Agreement Target
Requires 42% emissions cut by 2030 and 57% cut by 2035 vs 2019 levels. Only achievable with massive NDC ambition upgrade. Still technically possible but “window closing fast.”
2.6°C
Full NDC Implementation
Temperature if ALL current conditional + unconditional NDCs are implemented in full. Still 1.1°C above Paris target. Brings devastating impacts.
2.8°C
Only Unconditional NDCs
Temperature if only unconditional NDCs are met (those not requiring external financial support). Many countries’ conditional pledges depend on climate finance from richer countries.
3.1°C
Current Policies Only
Temperature if countries only follow existing enacted policies — no additional effort. The worst-case scenario under EGR 2024. Catastrophic impacts — entire ecosystems collapse, extreme heat, sea level rise.
🔴 UNEP EGR 2024 Key Findings — What UPSC Will Test
- Report title: “No more hot air…please!” — named to signal frustration that countries keep making pledges without delivering
- The Gap: Nations must cut 42% of global GHG emissions by 2030 and 57% by 2035 vs 2019 levels to stay on a 1.5°C pathway. Current pledges fall dramatically short.
- No G20 country strengthened its 2030 NDC targets (as of 2024 report)
- Carbon budget (remaining, 2024):
- For <2°C warming (66% chance): 900 GtCO₂ remaining
- For <1.5°C warming (50% chance): 200 GtCO₂ remaining
- Good news: Solar, wind, and forests offer real promise for sweeping and fast emissions cuts. 60 countries have 2035 NDC targets in some form. If 60% recycling of e-waste by 2030 etc.
- What’s needed: 6-fold increase in mitigation investment | G20 nations must “do the heavy lifting” | Reform of global financial architecture | Minimum 101 parties (82% of emissions) have adopted net-zero pledges
- India’s NDC (for context): India submitted updated NDC in 2022 — committed to: 500 GW non-fossil capacity by 2030, 50% electricity from renewables by 2030, 45% emissions intensity reduction by 2030 (vs 2005), net zero by 2070
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UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2025 — “Off Target” Latest
Released November 4, 2025 · Before COP30 in Belém, Brazil · India in spotlight
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UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2025: “Off Target”
United Nations Environment Programme · November 4, 2025 · 16th Edition · Released ahead of COP30, Belém, Brazil
2025 LATEST
🔴 UNEP EGR 2025 — Key Findings
- Global GHG emissions 2024: Record high of 57.7 GtCO₂e — up 2.6% from 2023. Another year of missed opportunity to peak emissions.
- Temperature under current policies: 2.8°C — slightly better than 2024 report’s 3.1°C, but improvement includes 0.1°C from methodology update, 0.1°C cancelled by US Paris withdrawal
- Temperature under full NDC implementation: 2.3–2.5°C — still far above Paris target
- Temporary 1.5°C overshoot: The multi-decadal temperature average will exceed 1.5°C at least temporarily. Best case: overshoot of ~0.3°C before potentially returning to 1.5°C by 2100 — only if rapid mitigation starts in 2025.
- US withdrawal from Paris Agreement: Will cancel ~0.1°C of progress made elsewhere
- China: EGR 2025 is the first to project China’s emissions may peak in 2025 — followed by a reduction of 0.3–1.4 GtCO₂e by 2030
- Only 1/3 of Paris parties submitted or announced new NDCs by September 2025 cutoff. G20 not collectively on track for even 2030 NDC targets.
- Finance gap: Developing countries estimate needing US$5.3 trillion to meet NDC commitments. Huge gap between ambition and finance available.
🔴 India and UNEP EGR 2025 — Critical for UPSC
- India’s absolute emissions rise: India recorded the highest absolute rise in GHG emissions globally in 2024 (largest volume increase among all countries)
- India’s percentage rise: 3.6% increase in emissions — second highest percentage after Indonesia (4.6%)
- India’s CO₂ from energy (IEA GER 2025): India’s energy-related CO₂ rose 5.3% in 2024 — highest rate among major economies
- But: India’s per capita emissions remain well below the global average — 2.9 tCO₂e vs global average 6.6 tCO₂e (CCPI 2025). India argues this context is crucial — a developing country growing economically.
- India missed NDC deadline: India failed to submit new NDC 3.0 by September 30, 2025 deadline — creating pressure at COP30 in Belém, Brazil
- India’s position: “Climate justice trap” — low per-capita emissions (moral high ground) but rising total emissions. India has consistently argued that developed economies have failed to deliver the promised $100 billion/year climate finance under UNFCCC.
- Six largest emitters in total GHG (2024): China → USA → India → EU → Russia → Indonesia
- Historic cumulative CO₂: USA (largest historically) → China → EU. India much lower historically — the basis of “common but differentiated responsibilities” (CBDR) principle
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Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI) — 2025 & 2026
Annual ranking of 63 countries + EU by Germanwatch, NewClimate Institute & Climate Action Network
CCPI — What Is It?
- Full name: Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI)
- Published by: Germanwatch + NewClimate Institute + Climate Action Network (CAN) International — annually since 2005
- Coverage: 63 countries + EU (over 90% of global GHG emissions)
- Four assessment categories: (1) GHG Emissions (40% weight) · (2) Renewable Energy (20%) · (3) Energy Use/Efficiency (20%) · (4) Climate Policy (20%)
- Key quirk: Top 3 spots always remain VACANT — because no country performs well enough across ALL categories to earn a “very high” overall rating. This means rank 4 is effectively #1. This is a favourite UPSC trap!
- Ratings: Very High → High → Medium → Low → Very Low
CCPI 2025 — Released November 2024 at COP29 Baku
| Rank | Country | Rating | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1–3 | VACANT | — | No country scored high enough across all 4 categories |
| 4 | 🇩🇰 Denmark | Very High | Top performer — only country to achieve “high” in climate policy. Strong renewable energy, clear national agenda. |
| 5 | 🇳🇱 Netherlands | High | Strong climate policy, though new government raises concerns |
| 6 | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | High | Coal phase-out, pledge to stop new fossil fuel licenses |
| 7 | 🇵🇭 Philippines | High | Strong renewable push, low per-capita emissions |
| 8 | 🇲🇦 Morocco | High | Leading renewable energy adoption in Africa |
| 9 | 🇳🇴 Norway | High | High EV adoption, renewables-rich electricity |
| 10 | 🇮🇳 India | High | Among only 2 G20 countries rated “high” (UK + India). Per capita 2.9 tCO₂e vs global 6.6. But coal dependency noted. |
| 54 | 🇨🇳 China | Low | Large total emissions, ongoing coal use |
| 64 | 🇺🇸 USA | Very Low | High fossil fuel dependence |
| 65 | 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | Very Low | Fossil fuel economy |
| 67 | 🇮🇷 Iran | Very Low | Lowest ranked overall |
CCPI 2026 — Released November 2025 at COP30 Belém Latest
🔴 CCPI 2026 — India Falls 13 Places
- India’s rank: 23rd (down from 10th in CCPI 2025 — a 13-place fall)
- India’s rating: Shifted from “High” to “Medium” performer
- Reasons for India’s fall:
- Rising domestic production and consumption of coal — India is among the biggest producers of oil, gas, and coal worldwide
- India scored medium in GHG emissions, climate policy, and energy use
- India scored low in renewable energy (despite solar surge, coal still dominates the grid)
- India’s failure to submit new NDC 3.0 before COP30 deadline
- Top performers (CCPI 2026): Denmark (4th, 80.52 points) → UK (5th) → Morocco (6th)
- Worst G20 performers: USA, China, Russia, Australia, Japan, Saudi Arabia — all “very low”
- Only UK among G20 received a “high” rating in CCPI 2026
- Top 3 vacant again — no country achieves “very high” across all indicators
- India’s score: 61.31
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IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report 2023 — Science’s Verdict on the Climate Crisis
Released March 20, 2023 · Final installment of the 6th Assessment Cycle · 8,000+ pages synthesised
📊
IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2023
IPCC · Released March 20, 2023 · Synthesises findings from 782 scientists across all 6 AR6 reports · UN SG called it “a survival manual for humanity”
2023 FLAGSHIP
💡 Think of IPCC Like a Doctor Giving Earth’s Diagnosis
The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) doesn’t do original research — it reviews and synthesises thousands of existing scientific papers to give the world’s governments the most authoritative, comprehensive picture of climate science. The AR6 Synthesis Report is the “final diagnosis” after 5 years of work by 782 scientists. It has three parts: (1) What has already happened to Earth’s climate (Current Status), (2) What will happen under different emissions scenarios (Future Risks), (3) What we can still do (Near-term Responses). UN Secretary-General António Guterres called it “an atlas of human suffering and a damning indictment of failed climate leadership.”
The AR6 Cycle — 6 Reports Over 5 Years
WGI
Physical Science Basis
August 2021
234 scientists. What IS happening: temperatures, sea level, extreme events, attribution of climate change to human activities. Key finding: human influence has “unequivocally” warmed the climate system.
WGII
Impacts, Adaptation & Vulnerability
February 2022
270 scientists. What climate change is DOING to people, ecosystems, and economies. Key: ~50% of global population faces severe water scarcity for at least 1 month/year. Some ecosystems already at or beyond tipping points.
WGIII
Mitigation of Climate Change
April 2022
278 scientists. What we CAN DO to reduce emissions. Key: Solar and wind costs fell 85–90% in 10 years. Emissions must peak before 2025. To limit to 1.5°C: 43% cut by 2030, 60% by 2035 vs 2019 baseline.
+ 3 Special Reports (completed during AR6 cycle): SR1.5 (2018) — Global Warming of 1.5°C | SRCCL (2019) — Climate Change and Land | SROCC (2019) — Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate. These still inform the AR6 Synthesis Report.
🔴 IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report 2023 — 10 Key Findings for UPSC
- 1. Current warming (CONFIRMED): Global mean surface temperature is already 1.1°C above pre-industrial levels (2011-2020 average). Human activities are unequivocally the dominant cause.
- 2. 1.5°C breach timing: Even with strong action, 1.5°C will be reached as early as the early 2030s — possibly temporarily. This will cause significantly worse impacts than current climate.
- 3. Cuts required for 1.5°C:
- Emissions must fall 43% by 2030 (vs 2019 levels)
- Emissions must fall 60% by 2035
- Net zero CO₂ by approximately 2050
- 4. Impacts already worse than expected: About half of global population faces severe water scarcity at least 1 month/year. Climate change has slowed agricultural productivity growth in middle and low latitudes. Crop productivity growth shrank by 1/3 in Africa since 1961.
- 5. Irreversible losses are happening: Some terrestrial, coastal, and oceanic ecosystems, freshwater systems, and cryosphere changes are already irreversible. West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets could melt almost completely if warming reaches 2–3°C.
- 6. Solar and wind are the heroes: Costs of solar PV fell 85%, wind power 55%, in the decade to 2020. This is why the energy transition has accelerated beyond all expectations.
- 7. The window is closing: IPCC is “strongly convinced” that risks increase with every increment of warming. Every tenth of a degree matters. There is no safe level of global warming.
- 8. Multiple climate tipping points: At 1.5°C: risk of triggering tipping points (Amazon dieback, Arctic permafrost collapse, coral reef die-off) increases substantially.
- 9. Adaptation is happening but insufficient: Adaptation measures at national and local levels are increasing, but are “lagging dangerously behind” relative to what is needed.
- 10. AR7 — Next report: IPCC AR7 cycle expected to conclude around 2028–2030. Will be critical input for the 2035 NDC target period and the second Global Stocktake.
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Carbon Budget — The Simplest Explanation for Students
One of UPSC’s favourite concepts — think of it as Earth’s credit card limit for CO₂
💡 The Carbon Budget = Earth’s CO₂ Credit Card
Imagine Earth’s atmosphere has a credit card limit for CO₂ — once you exceed it, the consequences kick in (in this case: 1.5°C or 2°C warming). The remaining carbon budget is how much CO₂ humanity can still emit before reaching that limit. Every tonne of CO₂ we emit today brings us closer to maxing out the card. Once it’s maxed out, no amount of future “good behaviour” can undo the damage quickly — the warming is baked in for centuries.
The current numbers (EGR 2024): For a 50% chance of staying below 1.5°C — we have only 200 GtCO₂ left. At current emission rates (~40 GtCO₂/year from fossil fuels), that’s gone in about 5 years. For a 66% chance of staying below 2°C: 900 GtCO₂ left — roughly 20+ years at current rates.
Carbon Budget — Key Concepts for UPSC
- Definition: The total amount of CO₂ that can still be emitted into the atmosphere while keeping global warming below a certain temperature threshold with a given probability
- Expressed as: GtCO₂ (gigatonnes of CO₂) — 1 GtCO₂ = 1 billion tonnes
- Why it works: CO₂ has a nearly linear relationship with global temperature — each additional tonne of CO₂ causes a proportional increment of warming
- Two important numbers (EGR 2024, as of 2024):
- 200 GtCO₂ remaining to have a 50% chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C
- 900 GtCO₂ remaining to have a 66% chance of limiting warming to 2°C
- The carbon budget gets smaller every year: Each year humanity emits ~40+ GtCO₂ from fossil fuels alone. At this rate, the 1.5°C carbon budget runs out within 5 years. This is why urgency is paramount.
- Who “owns” the remaining budget? This is a justice debate. If remaining budget is shared equally per capita, developed countries (who already used their share in industrialisation) have little or no budget left. Developing countries (India, Africa, etc.) have greater claims on the remaining budget — this is the basis of India’s “CBDR + per-capita equity” argument in climate negotiations.
- Carbon budget vs GHG budget: Carbon budget usually refers only to CO₂. Including other GHGs (methane, N₂O) in CO₂-equivalent terms changes the budget size but the concept is the same.
- Cumulative vs annual emissions: Carbon budget is about CUMULATIVE (total over time) emissions, not annual. This is why stopping emissions sooner matters more than stopping them slowly over a longer period.
⭐ Master Cheat Sheet — All 4 Reports at a Glance
- IEA: International Energy Agency | Est. 1974 (post-OPEC crisis) | HQ Paris | India: Association member since 2017 | WEO (annual flagship) | Three scenarios: STEPS / APS / NZE
- IEA WEO 2024: Emissions peak by ~2025 but slow decline after | 560 GW renewables added in 2023 | 750 million without electricity | Oil/LNG market shifting to buyers’ market | Energy security + climate inextricably linked
- IEA GER 2025: Energy CO₂ hit all-time high 37.8 Gt in 2024 | India energy CO₂ rose 5.3% — highest rate among major economies | Solar/wind/nuclear deployment prevented 2.6 Bn tonnes additional CO₂
- UNEP EGR 2024 “No more hot air”: 15th edition | Temperature trajectories: Current policies = 3.1°C | Unconditional NDCs = 2.8°C | Full conditional NDCs = 2.6°C | Target 1.5°C needs 42% cut by 2030, 57% by 2035 | Carbon budget remaining: 200 Gt (1.5°C) | 900 Gt (2°C)
- UNEP EGR 2025 “Off Target”: 16th edition | Released Nov 4, 2025 ahead of COP30 Belém | Global GHG: record 57.7 GtCO₂e | Current policies → 2.8°C | Full NDCs → 2.3-2.5°C | India = highest absolute GHG rise in 2024 | India 2nd in % growth (3.6%, after Indonesia 4.6%) | China may peak 2025 | 1.5°C will be temporarily exceeded | Best case: return to 1.5°C by 2100 with immediate action
- Top 6 GHG emitters (2024): China → USA → India → EU → Russia → Indonesia
- India context: Highest absolute emitter rise 2024 BUT per capita 2.9 tCO₂e vs global 6.6 | Net zero by 2070 | India failed to submit NDC 3.0 before COP30 | Historically low cumulative CO₂
- CCPI basics: By Germanwatch + NewClimate Institute + CAN | Annual since 2005 | 63 countries + EU | 4 criteria: GHG (40%) + Renewables (20%) + Energy use (20%) + Climate policy (20%) | Top 3 ALWAYS VACANT
- CCPI 2025 (Nov 2024): Denmark 4th (top) | Netherlands 5th | UK 6th | India 10th — “High” performer | Only 2 G20 countries “high”: UK + India | China 54th, USA 64th, Iran 67th (last)
- CCPI 2026 (Nov 2025): Denmark 4th | UK 5th | Morocco 6th | India 23rd — down 13 places, “Medium” | Score 61.31 | Reason: coal production/consumption rise | Only UK in G20 gets “high” | Top 3 still vacant
- IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report (March 20, 2023): Final report of AR6 cycle | 782 scientists total (WGI: 234, WGII: 270, WGIII: 278) | Released after 5 years
- AR6 key findings: Current warming = 1.1°C | 1.5°C reached early 2030s | 43% cut needed by 2030, 60% by 2035 (vs 2019) | Solar cost fell 85%, wind 55% in a decade | Some losses already irreversible | ~50% global population faces severe water scarcity 1+ month/year
- AR6 Working Groups: WGI (Physical Science, Aug 2021) | WGII (Impacts, Feb 2022) | WGIII (Mitigation, April 2022) + 3 Special Reports: SR1.5 (2018), SRCCL (2019), SROCC (2019)
- AR7: Expected to conclude 2028-2030 | Will be key input for 2035 NDC cycle and 2nd Global Stocktake
- Carbon Budget (remaining, EGR 2024): 200 GtCO₂ for 1.5°C (50% chance) | 900 GtCO₂ for 2°C (66% chance) | At ~40 GtCO₂/year current pace: 1.5°C budget gone in ~5 years
🧪 Practice MCQs
Q1. According to the UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2025 (“Off Target”), which of the following is CORRECT?
1. Global GHG emissions reached a record 57.7 GtCO₂e in 2024.
2. India recorded the highest absolute rise in GHG emissions globally in 2024.
3. Current policies put the world on track for 3.1°C of warming.
4. China’s emissions are projected to peak by 2025.
✅ Answer: (d) — 1, 2 and 4 are correct. Statement 3 refers to EGR 2024 figure.
1 ✅: UNEP EGR 2025 (released November 4, 2025) confirmed global GHG emissions reached a record high of 57.7 GtCO₂e in 2024 — up 2.6% from 2023. 2 ✅: India recorded the highest ABSOLUTE rise in total GHG emissions globally in 2024. In percentage terms, Indonesia had the highest growth rate (4.6%), followed by India (3.6%), but India’s total volume increase was the largest of any country. 3 ❌ Wrong for EGR 2025: The 3.1°C figure was from EGR 2024 (for current policies). EGR 2025 projects 2.8°C under current policies — slightly better, though partly due to methodology updates (0.1°C improvement) that would be cancelled by the US Paris withdrawal (another 0.1°C). Students must distinguish: EGR 2024 = 3.1°C current policies | EGR 2025 = 2.8°C current policies. 4 ✅: EGR 2025 is the first UNEP report to project that China’s emissions may peak in 2025, followed by a reduction of 0.3–1.4 GtCO₂e by 2030 — a significant development given China is the world’s largest emitter.
Q2. Consider the following about the Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI) 2026, released at COP30 in Belém:
1. The top three ranks remain vacant as no country achieved “very high” performance across all indicators.
2. India fell from 10th (CCPI 2025) to 23rd (CCPI 2026) — a 13-place drop.
3. India’s rating changed from “High” to “Medium.”
4. Only the United Kingdom among G20 countries received a “high” rating in CCPI 2026.
How many are CORRECT?
✅ Answer: (c) All four statements are correct
1 ✅: A defining feature of the CCPI is that the top 3 positions are ALWAYS left vacant — because no country achieves a “very high” rating across all four categories (GHG emissions, renewable energy, energy use, climate policy). This has been true for every CCPI edition since 2005. UPSC often tests this as a trap — rank 4 is effectively #1. 2 ✅: India’s rank fell dramatically from 10th (CCPI 2025, rated “High”) to 23rd (CCPI 2026), a fall of 13 places. This is partly due to India’s rising coal production and consumption, which undercuts its renewable energy progress. 3 ✅: Accordingly, India’s overall performance rating downgraded from “High” to “Medium.” The report also flagged India among the biggest global producers of oil, gas, and coal — a notable label for a country that CCPI 2025 had ranked 10th. 4 ✅: Among the G20 countries (who collectively account for 75%+ of global GHG emissions), the CCPI 2026 found that only the United Kingdom received a “high” rating. Ten G20 nations — including China, USA, Russia, Australia, Japan, and Saudi Arabia — were classified as “very low” performers due to continued dependence on fossil fuels.
Q3. The IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report (2023) concluded that global mean surface temperature had already risen by approximately how much above pre-industrial levels, and that to limit warming to 1.5°C, what emissions reduction is needed by 2030?
✅ Answer: (c) — 1.1°C current warming; 43% cut by 2030 vs 2019
The IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report (March 2023) — the most authoritative climate science document available — confirmed: (1) Current warming: 1.1°C — Global mean surface temperature for 2011-2020 was 1.1°C above the pre-industrial baseline (1850-1900 average). Human activities are “unequivocally” the dominant cause. (2) To limit to 1.5°C: Emissions must fall at least 43% by 2030 and 60% by 2035 compared to 2019 levels. This requires peaking global emissions before 2025 and then rapidly decreasing across all sectors. The 1.5°C level will be reached as early as the early 2030s (temporarily) even with strong action. The AR6 SYR used 2019 as the baseline year for percentage reductions (not 2005 or 1990 — different from India’s NDC which uses 2005 base). UN Secretary-General Guterres called the report “an atlas of human suffering and a damning indictment of failed climate leadership.”
📜 UPSC Previous Year Questions (PYQs)
With reference to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which of the following statements is/are correct?
1. IPCC conducts original research on climate change.
2. The Summary for Policymakers (SPM) in IPCC reports is approved line-by-line by government representatives.
3. IPCC assessment reports are released every five to seven years.
Select the correct answer:
✅ Official Answer: (b) 2 and 3 only. Statement 1 is WRONG.
Statement 1 ❌ Wrong: This is the most important and most commonly tested IPCC fact. The IPCC does NOT conduct original scientific research. The IPCC is an intergovernmental body that reviews, synthesises, and assesses existing scientific literature published by climate scientists around the world. It then produces comprehensive assessment reports based on thousands of peer-reviewed papers. This distinguishes IPCC from research institutions. Statement 2 ✅: The Summary for Policymakers (SPM) — the most widely read and politically influential part of each IPCC report — is indeed approved line by line by government representatives from IPCC member countries. This process ensures “buy-in” from governments but also means the SPM language is carefully negotiated. The underlying scientific chapters are written by scientists alone. Statement 3 ✅: IPCC comprehensive assessment reports are released approximately every 5–7 years. AR1 (1990) → AR2 (1995) → AR3 (2001) → AR4 (2007) → AR5 (2013-14) → AR6 (2021-23) → AR7 expected ~2028-30. Special Reports are released between assessment cycles on specific topics.
The 2019 United Nations Climate Action Summit was held at New York. Which of the following was/were expected to be the outcome/outcomes of this Summit?
1. Commitments from countries for attainment of “net-zero emission” by 2050
2. Launching of a new “Green Climate Fund” by wealthy countries
3. Plans from countries for enhancing their NDCs
Select the correct answer:
✅ Official Answer: (c) 1 and 3 only
1 ✅: The 2019 UN Climate Action Summit (convened by UN Secretary-General António Guterres, September 2019) specifically sought commitments from countries toward achieving “net-zero emissions” by 2050 — aligning with IPCC SR1.5’s finding that net zero by ~2050 is required to limit warming to 1.5°C. Many countries and subnational actors did commit to net-zero goals. 2 ❌ Wrong: The Green Climate Fund (GCF) was established much earlier — it was initiated at COP16 in Cancún (2010) and became operational in 2015. The 2019 Summit did not launch a “new GCF” — it focused on enhancing existing mechanisms and raising ambition. While some pledges to the GCF were made, the launching of a new fund was not an objective. 3 ✅: A core goal of the Summit was for countries to present enhanced NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions) — more ambitious climate pledges than their original 2015 Paris Agreement commitments. UN SG Guterres specifically called on countries to “come not with speeches, but with plans.” This is the ongoing cycle of NDC submission and enhancement under the Paris Agreement. Current affairs connection: This 2019 PYQ is more relevant than ever — the 2025 deadline for new NDCs (for 2035 targets) faced widespread non-compliance, as tracked by UNEP EGR 2025.
India’s intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) includes which of the following?
1. Reduce the emissions intensity of its GDP by 33 to 35% by 2030 from 2005 level.
2. Achieve about 40% of cumulative electric power installed capacity from non-fossil fuel based energy resources by 2030.
3. Create an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of CO₂ equivalent by 2030.
Select the correct:
✅ Official Answer: (c) All three
India’s INDC (submitted 2015, then updated as NDC in 2022) originally contained all three targets: 1 ✅ Emissions Intensity: India committed to reduce the emissions intensity of its GDP by 33-35% by 2030 compared to 2005 levels. The 2022 updated NDC raised this target to 45% reduction in emissions intensity by 2030 (vs 2005). Emissions intensity = GHG emissions per unit of GDP — this allows India to grow economically while becoming relatively cleaner. 2 ✅ Non-fossil capacity: Original INDC said 40% of cumulative electric power installed capacity from non-fossil fuel by 2030. The 2022 updated NDC raised this to 50% non-fossil electricity capacity by 2030. India had already achieved ~45% non-fossil capacity by 2024 — ahead of schedule largely due to solar and wind surge. 3 ✅ Carbon sink: India committed to create an additional carbon sink of 2.5-3 billion tonnes CO₂ equivalent by 2030 through enhanced forest and tree cover. This connects directly to India’s land restoration targets (26 mha) and the Aravalli Green Wall Project. Updated NDC 2022 additions: Net zero by 2070 | 500 GW non-fossil capacity by 2030 | 45% emissions intensity reduction (raised from 33-35%) | 50% non-fossil capacity (raised from 40%).
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
This is one of the most important conceptual tensions in climate justice — and UPSC loves testing it in Mains. Here’s how to think about it: (1) Scale vs responsibility: India has 1.4 billion people — any meaningful economic development will involve large absolute emission increases. Per capita, India emits only 2.9 tCO₂e vs a global average of 6.6 and the US average of ~14. Even as India’s total emissions grow, individual Indians are still far more climate-“innocent” than individual Americans. (2) Historical responsibility: Cumulative CO₂ (all historical emissions) shows USA at #1, followed by China and EU. India’s historical contribution is minimal — yet India is now bearing climate impacts (extreme heat, erratic monsoon, floods) caused primarily by others’ historical emissions. This is the CBDR (Common But Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities) principle in the Paris Agreement. (3) Development imperative: India’s energy demand will grow the most of any country by 2050 (IEA). India has 300 million people still in energy poverty. Demanding India sacrifice growth to solve a problem it didn’t primarily cause is an equity issue. (4) The practical concern: But India IS now #3 globally in total emissions and growing fast. Even if historically justified, India’s rising emissions contribute to warming that affects everyone — including India’s own vulnerable coastal cities, farmers, and glaciers. India must accelerate renewable deployment (which is happening) and formalise this commitment through a strong new NDC. (5) For Mains: Balance both sides — acknowledge India’s climate vulnerability and low per-capita emissions (moral high ground) while also recognising the urgency of transitioning away from coal, the missing NDC 3.0, and the global obligation.
Legacy IAS — UPSC Civil Services Coaching, Bangalore |
Sources: IEA WEO 2024 (October 2024) executive summary; IEA Global Energy Review 2025 — CO₂ emissions section (37.8 Gt record, India 5.3% rise); UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2024 “No more hot air…please!” (October 24, 2024) — UNEP official; UNEP EGR 2025 “Off Target” (November 4, 2025) — 57.7 GtCO₂e, India highest absolute rise, 2.8°C current policies; The Wire/DownToEarth — India EGR 2025 analysis; CCPI 2025 (NewClimate Institute, released COP29 Baku November 2024) — India 10th; CCPI 2026 (Germanwatch, released COP30 Belém November 2025) — India 23rd, 13-place fall; IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report (March 20, 2023) — WRI/IDDRI analysis; Carbon Brief — UNEP EGR 2025 detailed coverage (November 2025).
