Monsoon Forecast (June–September 2025)
- IMD retains ‘above normal’ rainfall forecast at 106% of the Long Period Average (LPA), i.e., ~92 cm of rainfall.
- Slightly higher than the April forecast of 105% (91.3 cm) of LPA.
- June alone likely to record 8% more rainfall than the average 16.7 cm.
Relevance : GS 1(Geography) ,GS 3(Disaster Management )
Regional Distribution
- Above-normal rainfall expected across most parts of India.
- Exceptions: Northeastern and Northwestern India may receive below or normal rainfall.
- Central India, Odisha, and parts of Rajasthan expected to receive 6% more than normal rainfall.
Early Monsoon Onset and Fast Progress
- Kerala monsoon onset: May 24 (a week earlier than the usual June 1).
- Mumbai monsoon onset: May 26 (earliest in 35 years, 2 weeks ahead of schedule).
- Fast advance through Karnataka, Goa, and central Maharashtra.
Scientific and Climatic Factors
- Factors aiding early and strong monsoon:
- Pre-cyclonic circulation.
- Favourable temperature patterns over the Tibetan Plateau.
- Absence of El Niño, which weakens monsoons in ~60% of occurrence years.
Impact on Heatwaves
- Despite possible slowing of monsoon’s progress towards Delhi, the strong monsoon is likely to prevent heatwaves in North India, especially the capital region in June.
Farmer Advisory
- Maharashtra government advises farmers to delay sowing, despite early rains — to avoid crop damage due to potential uneven rainfall in the early monsoon phase.
Implications
- Positive outlook for agriculture and water availability, especially in central India.
- Reduced heatwave risks offer relief in heavily populated urban centers.
- Strong monsoon could support Kharif sowing, hydroelectric power generation, and reservoir replenishment.
