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Is global warming becoming a distraction?

On Global Mean Warming Thresholds

  • The 2ºC threshold in the Paris Agreement (later shifted to 1.5ºC) is not rooted in precise climate science, but rather in early economic models (e.g., Nordhaus, 1970s).
  • These thresholds are arbitrary markers and don’t account for the non-linear, localised, and sudden nature of climate impacts.
  • Warming levels like 1.5ºC, 1.75ºC, or 2ºC dont make a practical difference when preparing for real-time disasters.

Relevance : GS 3(Environment and Ecology)

Flaws in Climate Models

  • Models for projecting long-term global warming (beyond 2050) are highly uncertain due to:
    • Unpredictability of future emissions.
    • Unknown future tech, policies, and social shifts.
  • Multiple models and datasets produce varying temperature estimates, making it difficult to confirm if 1.5ºC has been breached or not.
  • Short-term warming spikes (e.g., 2023–2024) may not indicate long-term trends.

 Is Global Mean Warming a Distraction?

  • Yes, focusing too much on global averages may divert attention from:
    • Local, actionable disaster risk reduction.
    • Real-time adaptation needs and resilience building.
  • There is a disconnect between abstract global metrics and ground-level preparedness.

Real Threat: Climate Disasters

  • Disasters such as heatwaves, floods, and droughts are increasing in:
    • Frequency
    • Intensity
    • Duration
  • Rising insurance and livelihood losses highlight the urgent need for preparedness.

What Needs More Focus Instead?

  • Short- to medium-term climate predictions (daily to decadal timescales) are more critical.
  • Hyperlocal data and early-warning systems can:
    • Enhance disaster response.
    • Guide adaptive infrastructure planning.
  • Importance of:
    • Tracking accuracy of forecasts.
    • Ensuring timely dissemination to local agencies.
    • Documenting system failures.

Tropics and Beyond: Equitable Action Needed

  • Tropics are climate risk hotspots, but even temperate zones (e.g., Valencia floods) are now vulnerable.
  • Global initiatives like UNEarly Warnings for All” aim to bridge warning-system gaps in poorer nations.

Key Takeaway

Climate risks are not predetermined — human agency and institutional preparedness determine the impact.

➤ Mitigation must continue, but resilience, adaptation, and operational disaster management deserve equal, if not more, attention.


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