On Global Mean Warming Thresholds
- The 2ºC threshold in the Paris Agreement (later shifted to 1.5ºC) is not rooted in precise climate science, but rather in early economic models (e.g., Nordhaus, 1970s).
- These thresholds are arbitrary markers and don’t account for the non-linear, localised, and sudden nature of climate impacts.
- Warming levels like 1.5ºC, 1.75ºC, or 2ºC don’t make a practical difference when preparing for real-time disasters.
Relevance : GS 3(Environment and Ecology)
Flaws in Climate Models
- Models for projecting long-term global warming (beyond 2050) are highly uncertain due to:
- Unpredictability of future emissions.
- Unknown future tech, policies, and social shifts.
- Multiple models and datasets produce varying temperature estimates, making it difficult to confirm if 1.5ºC has been breached or not.
- Short-term warming spikes (e.g., 2023–2024) may not indicate long-term trends.
Is Global Mean Warming a Distraction?
- Yes, focusing too much on global averages may divert attention from:
- Local, actionable disaster risk reduction.
- Real-time adaptation needs and resilience building.
- There is a disconnect between abstract global metrics and ground-level preparedness.
Real Threat: Climate Disasters
- Disasters such as heatwaves, floods, and droughts are increasing in:
- Frequency
- Intensity
- Duration
- Rising insurance and livelihood losses highlight the urgent need for preparedness.
What Needs More Focus Instead?
- Short- to medium-term climate predictions (daily to decadal timescales) are more critical.
- Hyperlocal data and early-warning systems can:
- Enhance disaster response.
- Guide adaptive infrastructure planning.
- Importance of:
- Tracking accuracy of forecasts.
- Ensuring timely dissemination to local agencies.
- Documenting system failures.
Tropics and Beyond: Equitable Action Needed
- Tropics are climate risk hotspots, but even temperate zones (e.g., Valencia floods) are now vulnerable.
- Global initiatives like UN’s “Early Warnings for All” aim to bridge warning-system gaps in poorer nations.
Key Takeaway
Climate risks are not predetermined — human agency and institutional preparedness determine the impact.
➤ Mitigation must continue, but resilience, adaptation, and operational disaster management deserve equal, if not more, attention.
