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NO NEW COVID CASES AFTER MAY 16 IN INDIA, SAYS STUDY

Why in news?

A study showed that the lockdown had slowed the rate of transmission and increased the doubling time, the period it took for cases to double, to about 10 days.

Though India continues to show a rising trend in cases, this projection also showed a forecast that says new cases would cease by May 16.

Details about the projection

From May 3, India would hit its peak in adding daily new cases at a little above 1,500 and this would drop to 1,000 cases by May 12, and down to zero by May 16.

In all, this would mean that no more than 35,000 cases would be added between May 2nd and the first fortnight of May.

Criticism of the Projection

Experts said this was “highly unlikely”. For a decline in the national average, there would have to be declines that lasted over two weeks in key States such as Gujarat, Maharashtra, West Bengal that were fueling the rise in numbers. So far there is no such evidence of a decline.

On the contrary The Indian Council of Medical Research also published a research strategy detailing how it was planning to ramp up testing far beyond April. To bend the curve or reduce down from the peak, the R0 (a number that shows how many a single person can infect) must stabilize around one for flattening and then go below one to bend it. West Bengal and Gujarat are peaking just now but case detection rates are rising.

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September 2022
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