Core Findings
- Climate change is intensifying cyclones: Both in intensity and geographic spread (into new, previously unaffected areas).
- SSP5-8.5 scenario predicts severe global warming with radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m² by 2100, leading to unprecedented cyclone impacts.
Relevance : GS 1(Geography) ,GS 3(Disaster Management)
Cyclone Impacts on Ecosystems
- Tropical cyclone belts may shift poleward, exposing unadapted ecosystems in higher latitudes.
- 844 ecoregions analyzed:
- 290 already affected by cyclones
- 200 more projected to become vulnerable
- 26 considered resilient
- Recovery time between high-intensity storms may reduce drastically (e.g., from 19 years → 12 years in resilient areas).
Ecosystem Risk Categories (Based on Exposure & Recovery Ability)
- Resilient: Often exposed, recovers fast
- Dependent: Ecosystem shaped by regular cyclones
- Vulnerable: Rare exposure, slow recovery
Mangroves at Risk
- Mangroves store 4-5x more carbon than terrestrial forests.
- Under SSP5-8.5:
- Up to 56% of mangroves globally at high to severe risk by 2100.
- Southeast Asia: 52–78% at high risk.
- Even in SSP3-7.0 (moderate emissions), 97–98% of Southeast Asia’s mangroves threatened.
- Mangroves’ ecosystem services — coastal protection, carbon storage, fish stocks — are at risk.
Modelling and Methodology
- CLIMADA risk platform and Holland model used for cyclone simulation.
- STORM-B & STORM-C datasets provided synthetic cyclone tracks.
- Cyclone intensity categorized:
- Low (33–49 m/s)
- Medium (50–70 m/s)
- High (>70 m/s)
- Sea-level rise categorized:
- Low (0–4 mm/year)
- Medium (4–7 mm/year)
- High (>7 mm/year)
Broader Implications
- Madagascar, Oceania, East Asia, Central America & Caribbean at increasing cyclone risk.
- Cyclones may strike places like the Philippines with unprecedented frequency.
- Recovery time and resilience must be factored into future conservation planning.
- Some ecosystems may permanently shift to new states, with no chance of full recovery.
Policy and Risk Recommendations
- Include long-term ecosystem recovery time in climate risk assessments.
- Implement risk-sensitive conservation planning that acknowledges shifting cyclone patterns.
- Urgent global emission cuts and commitment to the Paris Agreement are vital to avoid SSP5-8.5 trajectory.
