Context :
- IMD forecast: India likely to receive “above normal” monsoon in 2025 — i.e., 5% more than the long-period average (LPA) of 87 cm.
- This would be the second consecutive year of surplus rainfall (2024 had 8% above normal).
- The margin of error in the forecast is ±4%.
Relevance : GS 1(Geography) ,GS 3(Climate Change)
Positive Implications
- Agriculture:
- Likely to benefit kharif crops (e.g., paddy, pulses, oilseeds) due to adequate soil moisture.
- May enhance agricultural output, supporting rural income and food security.
- Water Resources:
- Better reservoir storage improves irrigation, drinking water supply, and hydropower generation.
- Inflation Control:
- Good monsoon → stable food prices → supports low retail inflation (relevant from previous news).
- Rural Economy:
- Employment under MGNREGA, agro-based sectors, and rural consumption could get a boost.
Risks and Concerns
- Flood Risk:
- Above-normal rainfall may bring episodes of intense rainfall → urban flooding, crop loss, and infrastructure damage.
- Climate Extremes:
- Recent years show a trend of spatial and temporal rainfall variability, even during surplus monsoons.
- Forecast Limitations:
- Models have only moderate predictability (~33%); high uncertainty due to complex monsoon dynamics.
Scientific Basis
- No El Niño: Typically leads to better monsoons; this year’s forecast benefits from its absence.
- Eurasian Snow Cover:
- Below-normal snow in Jan–Mar 2025 → historically associated with better Indian monsoons (inverse correlation).
- Dynamical Model Forecasting:
- IMD uses coupled ocean-atmosphere models, fed into supercomputers with parameters like:
- Sea surface temperatures
- Snow cover
- Oceanic heat content
- Wind patterns
- IMD uses coupled ocean-atmosphere models, fed into supercomputers with parameters like:
