Editorials/Opinions Analysis For UPSC 05 May 2025

Content:

1. Temporary respite
2. India must rethink its Arctic outlook
3. Not revenge or retaliation, but a paradigm shift

Temporary Respite

Positive Indicators in GST and Manufacturing:

• Record GST Collection in April 2025:
  Gross GST touched ₹2.37 lakh crore — a 12.6% YoY growth, showing strong revenue buoyancy.
• Improved Compliance & Digitalization:
  Net revenue to Centre rose 9.1% YoY; improvements linked to:
  • Higher GST compliance
  • Faster refunds, crucial for MSMEs
  • 87% fintech adoption in India (above global average)
• MSMEs entering the formal economy:
  COVID years accelerated digital onboarding, enabling better tax reporting and easier financial transactions.
• Long-term trend:
  April GST collections have more than doubled from ₹1.03 lakh crore in 2018 to ₹2.37 lakh crore in 2025 — indicating structural tax base expansion.

Relevance : GS 3(Indian Economy)

Practice Question : The recent buoyancy in GST revenues and exports reflects positive short-term trends, but structural issues continue to constrain India’s manufacturing sector. Critically examine the factors behind the current upswing and suggest long-term policy measures for sustainable industrial growth.(250 Words)

Trade & Export Trends:

• 86% surge in GST refunds to exporters:
  Reflects robust export activity and government efficiency in processing.
• 20.8% rise in GST from imports:
  Suggests revival in industrial demand and import-intensive manufacturing.
• PMI Strengthening:
  April’s HSBC India Manufacturing PMI at 58.2 (10-month high) — indicates strong new orders and global demand.
• Exports rising due to global factors:
  Businesses globally fast-tracked orders from India anticipating:
  • U.S. tariff pause ending July 9
  • Diversification from China due to tariff risks

Strategic Shifts in Global Supply Chains:

• Apple’s shift to India:
  Plans to source “most iPhones” for U.S. from India — shows India’s growing manufacturing stature.
• India seen as a China-plus-one alternative:
  As U.S. tightens tariffs on Chinese imports (including low value-add transshipments), India gains as a preferred sourcing hub.

Challenges & Long-Term Needs:

• Current manufacturing growth weak:
  Despite recent export surge, manufacturing grew only 4% in FY24 — a four-year low, indicating structural bottlenecks.
• Temporary nature of current boost:
  Export rush is tied to a short-term window (U.S. tariff pause) — not sustainable for long-term growth.
• Need for durable strategy:
  • Boost domestic consumption to build internal demand resilience.
  • Negotiate favorable terms in FTAs to strengthen manufacturing competitiveness.

Conclusion :

India’s current export and tax buoyancy offers temporary relief, but for sustainable economic growth, domestic consumption needs to be strengthened, and manufacturing must be supported by trade diplomacy and structural reforms.

India must rethink its Arctic outlook

Changing Arctic Geopolitics:

• Arctic’s shift from cooperation to contestation:
  Once a zone of scientific collaboration and environmentalism, the Arctic is now a theatre of geopolitical rivalry among major powers.
• Key geopolitical players:
  • Russia: Asserting dominance and militarising the region.
  • China: Expanding Arctic ambitions and seeking influence.
  • USA: Renewed focus, e.g., Trump’s 2019 Greenland proposal — underscoring Arctic’s strategic centrality.
• Climate change as a catalyst:
  Melting ice has made the Northern Sea Route (NSR) navigable, creating new trade routes and resource frontiers, shifting global maritime dynamics.

Relevance : GS 2(International Relations)

Practice Question : India’s current Arctic engagement, focused largely on climate research, appears inadequate in the face of rising geopolitics and militarisation in the region. Critically examine the implications of India’s limited Arctic posture for its strategic and economic interests. Suggest a roadmap for recalibrating India’s Arctic strategy in line with emerging global realities.(250 Words)

Rising Militarisation of the Arctic:

• Militarisation indicators:
  Reopening of military bases, submarine deployments, visible force displays by Arctic states.
• Strategic repositioning:
  • Arctic powers now use presence to influence wider global strategies.
  • The militarisation trend, though not new, is now more assertive and visible.

India’s Present Arctic Posture:

• Current policy focus: India’s 2022 Arctic Policy emphasizes climate science, sustainability, and Himalayan-Arctic climate linkages.
• India’s limited presence:
  • Research station at Svalbard
  • Observer status in the Arctic Council
  • Participation in polar expeditions
• Mismatch with new realities:
  These efforts are rooted in a benign geopolitical era, now outdated due to emerging power rivalries.
• Strategic detachment:
  India remains largely absent from critical Arctic forums and conversations on emerging governance, trade, and security.

Implications for India:

• Economic stakes: The viability of the NSR may divert global trade away from Indian Ocean sea lanes, impacting India’s role as a regional connectivity hub (e.g., SAGAR, IPOI).
• Strategic risks: Growing Russia-China coordination in the Arctic and China’s naval presence in the Indian Ocean blur regional boundaries, challenging India’s maritime strategy.
• Perception issues: India’s historic ties with Russia may create discomfort among Nordic partners, especially amid Russia’s role in Ukraine.

The Way Forward: Strategic Recalibration

• Need for a sharper Arctic strategy, retaining environmental ethos but with clear strategic depth.
• Three-pronged approach recommended:
  • Institutionalise Arctic engagement:
    • Create Arctic desks in Foreign and Defence Ministries
    • Facilitate inter-agency consultations
    • Collaborate with strategic think tanks

• Forge partnerships with like-minded Arctic states:Focus on dual-use tech (e.g., maritime awareness, satellite monitoring)Avoid raising militaristic alarms

• Secure a voice in emerging Arctic governance:Actively participate in forums on infrastructure, shipping, digital standards, blue economyEngage local Arctic communities respectfully

Key Takeaway:

India’s climate-centric and apolitical Arctic stance is no longer sufficient. As the Arctic becomes a critical node in geopolitical and economic shifts, India must proactively shape its Arctic strategy to avoid marginalisation in the new polar order.

Not revenge or retaliation, but a paradigm shift

Nature of the Pahalgam Attack

• First major civilian attack since Mumbai 2008.
• Deliberate targeting by religion; aimed to provoke communal tensions.
• Marked shift from fidayeen-style attacks to a planned, exfiltrated operation.
• Objective: Terrorize civilians, destabilize the Kashmir economy, and provoke internal communal unrest.

Relevance : GS 3(Internal Security)

Practice Question : The Pahalgam attack underscores the limitations of India’s reactive counter-terror responses. In this context, critically evaluate the need for a paradigm shift in India’s counter-terrorism doctrine. How can strategic restraint, diplomatic engagement, and structural reforms together ensure long-term national security?(250 Words)

India’s Past Responses to Terror

• 2001 (Parliament Attack): Operation Parakram — full-scale military mobilisation.
• 2008 (Mumbai Attacks): Global diplomatic offensive; Pakistan admitted to training terrorists; FATF grey-listing.
• 2007 (Samjhauta Express) & 2016 (Pathankot): Asked Pakistan to investigate; allowed Pakistani team to visit.
• 2016 (Uri Attack): Cross-LoC surgical strikes.
• 2019 (Pulwama): Balakot air strikes beyond PoK; IAF pilot captured.

Strategic Takeaway

• India must move beyond reactive/revenge-based responses.
• Craft a three-pronged strategic doctrine:
  • Counter-terror strategy
  • Retaliation planning
  • Managing Pakistan’s counter-retaliation

New Challenges and Risks

• Pakistan’s Military Posturing:
  • Gen. Asim Munir’s radical leanings (legacy of Zia-ul-Haq).
  • His long tenure till 2027 and pressure to act post Jaffar Express attack.
  • Imran Khan’s popularity — internal army politics may push adventurism.

• Chinese Factor:
  • India’s response may impact CPEC — risks Chinese reaction.

• Internal Escalation Risks:
  • Domestic calls for “map-making” or “war” may push hasty military action.

Diplomatic Front: Leverage and Pitfalls

• Suspension of Indus Waters Treaty (IWT):
  • Risk of backlash from World Bank, China (upper riparian), and Bangladesh (lower riparian).
• UNSC Dynamics:
  • Recent watered-down statement (omitted TRF and India’s role) due to Pakistan’s UNSC membership.
  • India must push for:
    • TRF listing under UNSC sanctions.
    • Designation of TRF as Foreign Terrorist Organisation (FTO) in allied nations.
• FATF Re-engagement:
  • Renew pressure on Pakistan using FATF mechanisms.
• Revive CCIT Campaign:
  • Use diplomacy and credible figures, even Opposition leaders, for international support.

Paradigm Shift Proposal: LoC as International Border

• LoC used by Pakistan to fuel asymmetric warfare.
• Pakistan has already altered PoK’s demography and control structures.
• Realistically, taking PoK coercively is not viable.
• Turning LoC into a de facto border may:
  • Close the terror pipeline.
  • Reduce long-term instability.
  • Require international pressure on Pakistan for formal acceptance.

Conclusion

• Pahalgam is a turning point; a mere retaliatory strike is inadequate.
• India needs a comprehensive, strategic, diplomatic, and psychological shift.
• Sealing the LoC as a permanent border could be the long-term stabiliser in South Asia.