Editorials/Opinions Analysis For UPSC 07 July 2025

Content :

1. India’s diplomacy is measured, not mute
2. The new battle challenge of China-Pakistan collusion

India’s diplomacy is measured, not mute

Diplomatic Response: Cautious, Consistent, Calculated

• India called for “restraint and de-escalation” amid the 12-day Israel-Iran conflict starting June 13, 2025.
• PM Modi reaffirmed: “This is not an era of war” — a phrase used previously for Ukraine and Gaza.
• At the UN General Assembly (2024), India voted in favor of a permanent ceasefire in Gaza — one of 153 nations to do so.

Relevance : GS 2(International Relations )

Practice Question : “India’s diplomatic response to the Israel–Iran conflict reflects a balance between humanitarian principles, strategic autonomy, and national interest.” Critically examine this approach in light of recent developments, including Operation Sindhu and India’s multilateral positions.(250 Words)

Humanitarian Evacuation & Soft Power

• Operation Sindhu (2025): India evacuated 312 citizens, mostly medical students and workers, from Israel and Iran.
• Previous evacuations:
  • Operation Ajay (2023): 1,300 Indians from Israel.
  • Operation Kaveri (2023): 3,862 from Sudan.
  • Operation Ganga (2022): 22,500 from Ukraine.
• India’s swift evacuations build its image as a humanitarian first responder and reinforce diplomatic goodwill.

India-Israel Relations: Strategic & Defence Heavy

• Israel is India’s 4th largest defence supplier (after Russia, France, and the US).
• Major defence imports: Barak-8 missiles, Heron UAVs, Spike anti-tank missiles, and surveillance tech for border areas.
• Annual bilateral trade: $10.1 billion (2023–24).
• India is Israel’s largest arms customer, accounting for 41% of Israeli defence exports between 2018–2022 (SIPRI).

India-Iran Relations: Energy, Chabahar & Connectivity

• India imported 23.9 million tonnes of crude oil from Iran in 2018–19, before US sanctions halted trade.
• Chabahar Port: India has invested over $85 million, with additional $150 million line of credit.
• Key node in International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), connecting India to Central Asia and Russia.
• New agreement (2024): India to operate Chabahar for 10 years, signalling deeper strategic investment.

Diaspora Considerations: Gulf Sensitivities

• Over 9 million Indians live in the Gulf and West Asia:
  • UAE: ~3.5 million
  • Saudi Arabia: ~2.6 million
  • Kuwait, Qatar, Oman: ~2.5 million
• Diaspora remittances from West Asia (2023): $54 billion, over 50% of India’s total remittance inflow.
• Ensuring regional peace is vital to migrant safety, remittance security, and bilateral goodwill.

Energy Security Impact

• India imports over 85% of its crude oil demand.
• Any regional escalation drives up Brent crude prices—recent spike to $97/barrel in June 2025 due to Israel-Iran tensions.
• Even a $10/barrel increase adds $15 billion annually to India’s import bill and raises domestic inflation.
• Stability in West Asia is thus essential for India’s macroeconomic stability.

Multilateral Alignment and India’s Normative Role

• India balances:
  • Condemning Hamas’ October 7, 2023 attack, calling it terrorism.
  • Expressing concern for Palestinian civilian casualties and voting for humanitarian resolutions.
• India adheres to:
  • UN Charter principles
  • Non-intervention in sovereign affairs
  • Rules-based order, while avoiding ideological alignments.

Pakistan Factor and Global Hypocrisy

• Recent Pahalgam terror attack (June 2025) by Pakistan-backed groups led to India’s Operation Sindoor — limited but precise cross-border retaliation.
• Despite FATF grey listing in past, Pakistan receives IMF loans ($3 billion, 2023) and arms support from allies due to its geo-strategic location.
• Western nations continue engagement with Pakistan’s unelected military elite, exposing the double standards on democracy.

West Asia’s Nuclear Risks

• Iran is enriching uranium to 60% purity, just below weapons-grade (per IAEA reports, 2024).
• Israel, though undeclared, is believed to possess 80–100 nuclear warheads (FAS estimates).
• A nuclearised West Asia would weaken the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and embolden conflict zones in Africa, South America, and Central Asia.

Connectivity & Corridor Projects at Stake

• India’s IMEC (India-Middle East-Europe Corridor) — launched at G20 2023 — passes through Israel and UAE.
• Israel-Iran instability risks the viability of IMEC, delaying India’s alternative to China’s BRI.
• INSTC (via Iran) remains vital for Russia-Central Asia trade, especially as India boosts non-Western trade routes post-Ukraine war.

Public Opinion and Information War

• Social media discourse in India often polarised—selective outrage, misinformation, and ideological positioning dominate narratives.
• Foreign policy cannot be driven by emotion or partisan activism, especially when economic stakes and human lives are involved.
• Government responses remain non-partisan, fact-based, and principle-driven, resisting pressure from both Left and Right.

India as a Bridge Between Blocs

• India enjoys access to:
  • Israel’s high-tech and defence ecosystem
  • Iran’s energy, ports, and Central Asian access
  • Arab World’s trade, diaspora, and FDI inflows
• India is uniquely positioned to act as:
  • A mediator or neutral voice in global South-West Asia conflicts.
  • A trusted partner to both the West and Islamic world, due to non-aligned yet assertive foreign policy.

Conclusion: Strategic Autonomy Anchored in National Interest

• India is navigating one of the world’s most volatile regions with clarity, restraint, and strategic focus.
• It balances:
  • Values (peace, international law)
  • Interests (energy, trade, security)
  • Reputation (as a responsible global actor)
• India’s quiet diplomacy, backed by credible action and economic weight, underscores its arrival as a leading power in a multipolar world.

Disclaimer : The views and opinions expressed here are based on the original article published in THE HINDU and do not reflect the official stance of Legacy IAS Academy. This content is provided solely for Academic purposes.

The new battle challenge of China-Pakistan collusion

Context and Key Trigger

• Operation Sindoor (May 7–10, 2025): A four-day military confrontation between India and Pakistan in the wake of the April 22 Pahalgam terror attack.
• Historic Shift: For the first time, China acted as a live collusive force, not merely a diplomatic backer of Pakistan, unlike in 1965, 1971, or 1999.
• Official Confirmation: Lt. Gen. Rahul R. Singh (Deputy COAS) publicly acknowledged China’s “unprecedented battlefield support” to Pakistan.

Relevance : GS 2(International Relations)

Practice Question : “Operation Sindoor marks the emergence of a ‘one-front reinforced war’ scenario for India, with battlefield collusion between China and Pakistan redefining regional security calculus.” Critically analyse the implications of this evolving collusive threat and suggest strategic responses India must undertake.(250 Words)

Battlefield Collusion: New-Generation Military Synergy

• Advanced Chinese Systems Deployed:
  • J-10C Fighters with PL-15 BVR missiles.
  • HQ-9 Air Defence Systems enhancing Pakistani anti-air capability.
• ISR Integration:
  • China’s ISR infrastructure offered real-time surveillance to Pakistani forces.
  • BeiDou navigation was used for missile guidance and precision targeting.
• Net-centric & Grey-Zone Warfare:
  • Cyber ops, drone swarms, jamming, and psychological warfare bore the imprint of Chinese military doctrine.
  • Chinese civilian fishing fleets helped monitor Indian naval movement – leveraging dual-use assets.

Strategic Interoperability: Practised, Not Symbolic

• Joint Exercises:
  • Years of Shaheen-series air exercises enabled real-time interoperability.
• Mixed Platform Integration:
  • Swedish Saab 2000 AEW&C and Chinese radar networks worked in tandem.
  • Signaled the fusion of multi-origin battlefield systems via Chinese integration protocols.

Information Warfare & Perception Shaping

• Chinese Media & Digital Ecosystem:
  • Amplified ISPR propaganda (e.g., false claims of Indian aircraft downing).
  • Portrayed India’s retaliatory actions as “disproportionate”, ignoring the Pahalgam terror context.
• Narrative Alignment with Pakistan:
  • UNSC Press Statement diluted — no mention of The Resistance Front.
  • Chinese social media ecosystems mirrored Pakistan’s calls for international intervention.

Diplomatic Signals and Strategic Silence

• China’s Diplomatic Posture:
  • Delayed and equivocal condemnation of the Pahalgam attack.
  • Language suggested support for Pakistan’s “security concerns”.

• India’s Tactical Diplomacy:
  • No high-level outreach to China during or after Sindoor.
  • India instead chose to engage with other UNSC members, isolating China diplomatically.

Implications for India’s Strategic Landscape

One-Front Reinforced War Reality

• Not a theoretical two-front war.
• Instead, a single-front conflict with Pakistan, tactically enhanced by China’s remote but real-time support.

Deterrence Complexified

• Chinese collusion blurs thresholds of conventional escalation.
• India’s traditional deterrence model faces a layered adversary system.

Defence Dependency of Pakistan

• Post-Sindoor announcements (June 6):
  • Pakistan to acquire J-35 stealth jets, HQ-19 BMD, KJ-500 AEW&C.
  • Cementing its role as China’s primary frontline proxy.

China’s Defence Industry Validation

• Operation Sindoor functioned as a live-fire demonstration for Chinese platforms vs. Western systems.
• Success may bolster Chinese arms exports and grey-zone ambitions globally.

India’s Dual-Front Challenge

• Eastern Sector (Ladakh): Despite October 2024 disengagement, force deployment continues.
• Western Sector (LoC): Ceasefire collapse post-Sindoor.
• India now faces two hostile, active military theatres — demanding dual-front readiness.

Strategic Lessons & Required Reorientation

Force Modernisation Must Accelerate

• Decline in defence spending (from 17.1% in 2014–15 to 13% in 2025–26) is misaligned with battlefield needs.
• India must:
  • Boost ISR, drones, air defence.
  • Invest in network-centric warfare.
  • Enhance jointness and tri-services integration.

Diplomatic Reset with China

• India must reassess China ties in light of collusion.
• Just as terror and talks can’t coexist with Pakistan, collusion and cooperation can’t coexist with China.

Unpredictability in Retaliation

• Avoid predictable punitive strikes — reduces strategic advantage.
• Explore covert retaliatory levers:
  • Economic & infrastructure disruptions.
  • Rethink Indus Waters Treaty enforcement.
  • Quiet escalation of SCS engagement or Taiwan signalling.

Psychological Resilience & Info-Dominance

• Develop capacity to counter enemy narrative shaping.
• Leverage AI-driven counter-propaganda and digital diplomacy.
• Shield civilian morale from coordinated perception warfare.

Conclusion: Redrawing the Strategic Map

• Operation Sindoor marks a paradigm shift in regional geopolitics.
• China’s indirect but decisive battlefield presence sets the tone for future India-Pakistan confrontations.
• India must move beyond reaction to structured adaptation, using Sindoor as:
  • A case study in adversarial convergence.
  • A catalyst for strategic overhaul in deterrence, doctrine, and diplomacy.

Disclaimer : The views and opinions expressed here are based on the original article published in THE HINDU and do not reflect the official stance of Legacy IAS Academy. This content is provided solely for Academic purposes.