Why in News?
- PM Narendra Modi visited China earlier this month to attend the SCO Summit in Tianjin.
- On the sidelines, he met Chinese President Xi Jinping.
- Both leaders agreed to:
- Restart bilateral trade and air connectivity.
- Maintain peace and tranquility at the border.
- Emphasise that India and China are “development partners, not rivals”.
- Context:
- Comes 5 years after Galwan clashes (2020).
- Just months after Operation Sindoor against Pakistan (with Chinese support to Pakistan’s military).
Relevance:
- GS II (IR): India–China relations, border dispute (Aksai Chin, Arunachal Pradesh), diplomacy in multilateral forums (SCO, BRICS).
- GS III (Security): Border management, PLA infrastructure, India’s counter (LAC roads, tunnels).
Basics of India–China Relations
Historical Background
- 1962 War → Border dispute remains unresolved.
- 1988 Rajiv Gandhi Visit → Both agreed to normalise ties despite boundary issue.
- 1993, 1996 Agreements → Confidence-building measures along LAC.
- 2005 → Strategic and Cooperative Partnership.
- 2020 Galwan Clash → Worst violence in 45 years; derailed confidence-building.
Core Issues
- Boundary Dispute: Over 3,488 km LAC; sectors (Western – Aksai Chin; Middle – Barahoti; Eastern – Arunachal Pradesh).
- China–Pakistan Nexus: CPEC, arms supplies, recent Saudi–Pak pact (with Chinese backing).
- Trade Imbalance: India imports heavily from China (electronics, machinery, critical minerals).
- Military Infrastructure: Rapid PLA buildup in Tibet/ Xinjiang; India matching with LAC infrastructure upgrades.
Overview
Possibility of Normalisation without Border Resolution
- Pro:
- Precedent (1988–1990s) showed that ties in trade, culture, and people-to-people contact can progress while boundary remains unsettled.
- Peace and tranquility along LAC is the minimum condition.
- Con :
- 2020 Galwan revealed fragility of this arrangement.
- China reluctant to resolve border; uses ambiguity as leverage.
China’s Strategic Perceptions of India
- Views India as secondary power, “just another South Asian country”.
- Alarmed by:
- India’s demographic dividend vs. China’s population decline.
- India’s economic growth and manufacturing ambitions (esp. during China–US trade war).
- Article 370 dilution (2019) seen as provocative by Beijing.
- Policy Shift: Restrict Chinese investments in India, impose export controls to hinder India’s rise.
Chinese Strategy in South Asia
- Expanding beyond bilateral ties → creating trilateral/multilateral frameworks excluding India.
- Ex: China–Pakistan–Afghanistan, China–Pakistan–Bangladesh.
- Aim: Strategic encirclement of India (part of “String of Pearls” & BRI).
India’s Countermoves
- Border Patrol Agreement 2024: Restoration of patrolling rights (Demchok, Depsang) seen as diplomatic win.
- Infrastructure Push: Roads, tunnels, advanced deployment along LAC.
- Strategic Diversification:
- QUAD with US, Japan, Australia.
- Strengthening ties with ASEAN, EU, Gulf, Africa.
- Balancing act: Engage China at SCO/BRICS but hedge with West.
Future Scenarios
- Best-case: Stable ties with controlled rivalry; border management agreements hold.
- Middle-case: Economic engagement continues, but periodic border standoffs persist.
- Worst-case (Galwan-2): Another violent clash → complete breakdown, risk of escalation, push India deeper into US camp.
Key Takeaways
- India–China ties improving post-Modi’s China visit, with trade and border disengagement resuming.
- Boundary issue remains unresolved; Galwan exposed limits of “set aside disputes” formula.
- China sees India as a potential rival, not an equal, while India worries about encirclement via South Asia.
- Balancing strategy: India engages China diplomatically, strengthens border defences, and diversifies strategic partnerships.
- Future trajectory depends on whether border tranquility holds or another crisis emerges.
