One in Six People Exposed to Conflict Worldwide (ACLED Report 2025)

Why is this in News?

• ACLED (Armed Conflict Location and Event Data) released its 2025 global conflict assessment.
• Key headline:
  • 831 million people exposed to conflict in 2025.
  • Roughly one in six people globally.
• Reveals:
  • Sharp rise in violent events.
  • Increasing state involvement in violence, including against civilians.
  • Changing nature of warfare, especially use of commercial drones by non-state actors.

Relevance

• GS II:
  • International relations, global conflict trends
  • Role of UN, multilateralism, peacekeeping
• GS III:
  • Internal security: non-state actors, emerging technologies in warfare

What is ACLED?

• An independent, globally recognised conflict data collection and analysis organisation.
• Tracks:
  • Political violence.
  • Armed conflict.
  • Protest events.
• Used by:
  • UN agencies.
  • Governments.
  • Researchers and humanitarian organisations.

Key Global Findings (2025)

Scale of Conflict

• ~200,000 violent events recorded globally.
  • Nearly double compared to four years ago.
• 10% of global population exposed to conflict environments.

Nature of Contemporary Conflicts

1. Increased Violence, Reduced Restraint

• Armed actors show:
  • Higher willingness to use force.
  • Disregard for civilian harm.
• Reflects erosion of:
  • International Humanitarian Law (IHL).
  • Norms protecting non-combatants.

2. Rising Role of State Forces

• 74% of violent events involved state forces in 2025.
• State-led violence against civilians:
  • Increased from 20% (2020) → 35% (2025).
• Indicates:
  • Militarisation of internal conflicts.
  • Shrinking space for civilian protection.

Civilians at the Centre of Violence

• 56,000+ incidents of violence directed at civilians.
  • Highest in the last five years.
• Two critical patterns:
  • States increasingly targeting civilians.
  • Non-state groups causing the majority of fatalities.

Region-wise Trends

Europe

• Largest increase in violence globally.
• Driven overwhelmingly by:
  • Russia–Ukraine war.
• Highest number of people affected since 2022 invasion.

West Asia

• 48% decline in violent events compared to 2024.
• Key reasons:
  • End of Syria’s civil war.
  • Ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon.
• Reduced Israeli and Turkish air campaigns:
  • Led to 17% global drop in aerial warfare.

Africa

• Continues to bear:
  • High civilian fatalities.
  • Complex multi-actor conflicts.
• Sudan, DRC, Myanmar remain major hotspots.

State vs Non-State Actors: A Nuanced Picture

State Actors

• Israel and Russia:
  • Responsible for ~90% of cross-border state violence targeting civilians.
• Myanmar military:
  • Accounted for ~33% of state violence against its own civilians.

Non-State Armed Groups

• Responsible for ~60% of civilian fatalities.
• Major perpetrators:
  • Rapid Support Forces (RSF), Sudan:
    • 4,200 civilians killed.
    • ~11% of all non-state group fatalities globally.
  • Allied Democratic Forces (ADF):
    • ≥1,370 civilian deaths.
  • M23 movement (DRC):
    • 1,100 civilian deaths.
• Numbers likely undercounted due to reporting gaps.

Technological Shift in Warfare

Weaponisation of Commercial Drones

• 469 non-state armed groups have used drones at least once in last five years.
• 14% increase over the previous year.
• Significance:
  • Democratisation of military technology.
  • Low-cost, high-impact tools bypass traditional state monopoly on force.
  • Raises challenges for:
    • Airspace control.
    • Counter-terrorism.
    • Civilian safety.

Broader Implications

International Humanitarian Law (IHL)

• Rising civilian targeting signals:
  • Weak enforcement of Geneva Conventions.
  • Normalisation of civilian harm.

Global Security

• Conflicts are:
  • More frequent.
  • More lethal.
  • More fragmented.
• Multi-actor conflicts harder to resolve diplomatically.

Humanitarian Impact

• Increased displacement.
• Food insecurity.
• Collapse of health and education systems in conflict zones.

India and Global Governance Lens

• Reinforces need for:
  • Stronger multilateral conflict prevention.
  • UN Security Council reform.
  • Regulation of emerging military technologies (drones, AI).
• Relevant for India’s role in:
  • UN peacekeeping.
  • Global South diplomacy.
  • Norm-building on warfare ethics.

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