Why is it in News?
- Hong Kong hosted the 6th China–U.S. Exchange Foundation (CUSEF) Forum in November 2025, titled “Circles for Peace”.
- The forum took place amid deepening U.S.–China rivalry, declining people-to-people ties, technology-driven competition, and rising global uncertainty.
- The discussions highlighted that traditional engagement frameworks (like guardrails, managed competition) are no longer adequate to manage today’s strategic rivalry.
- Hong Kong was viewed as an “uneasy middle space” — a vantage point to explore new ideas and frameworks.
Relevance
GS-II: International Relations
- U.S.–China strategic competition
- Middle-power diplomacy
- Strategic autonomy
- Taiwan question
- Crisis prevention mechanisms
GS-III: Security & Technology
- AI governance
- Dual-use technologies
- Space governance
- Technology security dilemmas
U.S.–China Relations in 2025
- Relationship marked by strategic rivalry + deep economic interdependence.
- Areas of friction:
- Technology (semiconductors, AI, 5G)
- Trade and supply chains
- South China Sea
- Taiwan
- Human rights
- Military deterrence
- Both powers expect “sudden shocks” due to thin trust and high militarisation.
Key Themes from the Hong Kong Forum
A. Shrinking Space for Nuance
- Domestic politics in both states have hardened narratives.
- Specialist-level strategic anxieties have moved into public politics.
- Younger generations in both countries have declining familiarity due to reduced student exchanges.
B. AI and Technology as the New Global Commons
- AI viewed as an international public good — too consequential for one country to dominate.
- Forum emphasised:
- Equity
- Transparency
- Accountability
- Concern over dual-use technologies (civilian + defence).
- Need for:
- Global AI governance regime
- Future governance for outer space activities
C. Taiwan as a Driver of Militarised Tension
- China warned U.S. is drifting towards a “one China, one Taiwan” posture.
- Risk of accidental escalation (e.g., 2001 EP-3 incident).
- Region lacks a durable crisis-prevention mechanism insulated from domestic politics.
D. The Diplomatic Climate
- Strategic fatigue visible among experts.
- Personality-driven diplomacy insufficient in a complex multipolar world.
- Need for new vocabulary and mechanisms beyond Cold War models.
E. Ng Eng Hen’s “Dialectic Moment”
- Current global order is in structural flux, driven by competing pressures.
- U.S., Europe, and China will shape outcomes, but rest of the world must ensure:
- Global commons are not collateral damage
- No new hegemon emerges
- Multiparty stewardship of the future
Hong Kong’s Role as a “Middle Space”
A. Why Hong Kong Matters
- Historically a bridge between China and the West.
- Despite recent political pressures, retains:
- Connectivity
- Cultural hybridity
- Cosmopolitan networks
- Transparency advantages
- Acts as a metaphorical vantage point to think beyond binary geopolitics.
B. Middle Spaces in Global Politics
- Enable:
- Cross-border ideas
- Dialogue outside official channels
- Crisis de-escalation conversations
- Hong Kong demonstrates that even constrained spaces can enable meaningful engagement.
Lessons for India
A. India’s Strategic Autonomy Imperative
- India cannot control U.S.–China rivalry, but can manage its exposure.
- Avoid copying U.S. rhetoric or accepting China’s narratives.
- Must maintain:
- Independent decision-making
- Issue-based partnerships
- Non-alignment in new-age geopolitical conflicts
B. Build Domestic Power
- Technological capability
- Economic resilience
- Institutional strength
- Innovation ecosystems
- High-skill workforce
C. Avoid Rigid Binaries
- Not “with the U.S.” or “with China”.
- Build flexible, sector-specific cooperation with multiple poles (EU, Japan, ASEAN, Global South).
D. Strengthen People-to-People Channels
- Youth exchanges, academic collaborations, technology partnerships.
- These ties act as ballast during political shifts.
E. Develop Capabilities in Emerging Domains
- AI governance
- Space governance
- Critical mineral security
- Cyber norms
- Supply-chain risk management
Implications for the Emerging World Order
A. U.S.–China rivalry will persist
- It will not return to pre-2016 engagement.
- Atmospherics remain turbulent.
B. The Alternative to Managed Rivalry is Worse
- Cascading global risks:
- Climate shocks
- Pandemics
- Fragile supply chains
- AI weaponisation
- Political polarisation
C. Future Order = Cooperative Stewardship
- Practical cooperation > ideological competition.
- Key sectors:
- Energy
- Health
- Finance
- AI and space governance
- Climate adaptation
D. Strategic Middle Powers Matter More
- India, ASEAN, South Korea, Gulf states, EU, African states — shape global “weather”.
- Their choices will influence whether rivalry escalates or remains managed.
