Why is it in News?
- 2025: Report of the Parliamentary Standing Committee on External Affairs (Chair: Shashi Tharoor).
- Assesses India–Bangladesh relations over the past two turbulent years.
- Trigger:
- Fall of Sheikh Hasina–led Awami League government (5 August 2024).
- Political churn, youth-led movements, Islamist resurgence.
- Growing Chinese and Pakistani influence in Bangladesh.
- Report warns of India potentially losing strategic space in Dhaka without timely recalibration.
Relevance
GS II – International Relations
- India–Bangladesh bilateral relations
- Neighbourhood First Policy
- Political transitions in neighbouring countries
GS II – Foreign Policy & Diplomacy
- Managing strategic influence amid China–Pakistan outreach
- Diplomatic recalibration and institutional engagement
Core Assertion of the Report
- India’s greatest strategic challenge in Bangladesh since 1971.
- Contrast drawn:
- 1971: Existential, humanitarian crisis; birth of a new nation.
- Today: Subtler but possibly graver challenge:
- Generational political shift
- Reorientation of strategic alignments
- Risk of India becoming irrelevant, not threatened by war.
Background: India–Bangladesh Relations (Context)
- Traditionally strong pillars:
- Liberation War legacy (1971)
- Close ties with Awami League
- Cooperation on:
- Counter-terrorism
- Border management
- Connectivity
- River waters
- India’s Bangladesh policy heavily leader-centric, anchored around Sheikh Hasina.
What Has Changed?
1. Political Transition
- Collapse of Awami League dominance.
- Rise of:
- Youth-led nationalism
- Anti-incumbency narratives
- India perceived as:
- Over-aligned with one political party
- Insensitive to generational aspirations.
2. Generational Discontinuity
- Younger Bangladeshi population:
- Less emotionally tied to 1971 legacy.
- More assertive about sovereignty.
- India’s historic goodwill no longer automatic.
3. Resurgence of Islamists
- Re-entry of Islamist groups into mainstream politics.
- Raises concerns for:
- Internal security
- Cross-border extremism
- Minority rights in Bangladesh.
4. Strategic Inroads by China & Pakistan
- China:
- Infrastructure, ports, power, digital systems.
- Defence supplies and economic leverage.
- Pakistan:
- Intelligence and ideological outreach.
- Bangladesh increasingly hedging between India and rivals.
The Hasina Asylum Issue
India’s Decision
- India provided shelter to Sheikh Hasina after her ouster.
- Parliamentary panel:
- Endorses humanitarian and moral rationale.
- Warns against political misuse of Indian soil.
Diplomatic Sensitivities
- Bangladesh authorities accuse Hasina and associates of:
- Inciting unrest.
- Hasina:
- Issuing statements via personal communication devices.
- Indian position (as stated by Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri):
- India does not provide a political platform.
- No official facilitation of political activity from Indian territory.
Strategic Risks for India
1. Loss of Strategic Space
- India risks being sidelined in:
- Security cooperation
- Infrastructure influence
- Norm-setting in the region.
2. Border & Internal Security
- Porous border + political instability:
- Risks of radicalisation
- Smuggling
- Insurgent revival.
3. Neighbourhood First Policy at Stake
- Bangladesh is:
- India’s most critical eastern neighbour.
- Gateway to Northeast India and Act East Policy.
- Erosion here undermines India’s regional credibility.
Committee’s Warning
- Risk is not war, but irrelevance.
- Strategic loss through:
- Inattention
- Overdependence on past alignments
- Failure to engage emerging political forces.
What Recalibration Means for India ?
1. De-hyphenate from One-Party Dependence
- Engage:
- Opposition parties
- Civil society
- Youth groups
- Shift from leader-centric to institutional engagement.
2. Narrative Reset
- Move beyond 1971-centric diplomacy.
- Address:
- Economic aspirations
- Employment
- Climate vulnerability
- Digital economy cooperation.
3. Strategic Competition Management
- Offer credible alternatives to Chinese financing:
- Quality infrastructure
- Transparent development projects
- Strengthen people-to-people ties:
- Education
- Health
- Skill development.
4. Clear Red Lines on Security
- Zero tolerance on:
- Anti-India terror activities
- Radical networks.
- Quiet but firm security cooperation.
