Context : India’s population has reached an estimated 146.39 crore as per the UNFPA’s State of the World Population 2025 report, surpassing China to become the world’s most populous nation. The report also highlights a decline in India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) to 1.9, below the replacement level of 2.1.
Relevance : GS 1(Society ) , GS 2(Social Issues)
Key Highlights of the Report
- India’s population (April 2025 estimate): 146.39 crore (UNFPA)
- China’s population: 141.61 crore
- India is the world’s most populous nation.
- Total Fertility Rate (TFR): 1.9, below the replacement level of 2.1
- Projected population peak: ~170 crore around 2065, followed by decline
Fertility and Demographic Transition
- Replacement-level fertility: Achieved nationally (as per Registrar General’s 2021 report)
- TFR definition: Average number of children a woman is expected to bear during her reproductive years
- A TFR below 2.1 implies long-term population decline in the absence of migration
Data Gaps and Delays
- 2021 Census delayed; now planned for completion by March 2027
- Last official Census: 2011
- Population estimates rely on Sample Registration System (SRS) and technical projections
Implications of a Low TFR
- Positive:
- Lower burden on natural resources, environment
- Opportunity for demographic dividend in short-term
- Concerns:
- Future challenges of population ageing
- Shrinking workforce vs dependent elderly
- Pressure on pension, healthcare systems
- Possible regional disparities – Some States still have high TFRs
Global & National Context
- Report titled: “State of the World Population 2025: The Real Fertility Crisis”
- Highlights a global trend of declining fertility — not just in India
- Reflects India’s demographic maturity, but also underlines the need for policy preparedness
