The Third Nuclear Age

Introduction :

The Third Nuclear Age marks a shift from traditional deterrence-based stability to a more unpredictable era where nuclear weapons are used as tools of coercion and strategic signalling.

This phase reflects global power realignment, weakening of nuclear norms, and rising risk of nuclear use, unlike the structured bipolarity of the Cold War or the disarmament hopes of the post-Cold War period.

Relevance : GS 2(International Relations ), GS 3(Internal and External Security)

Framework of Nuclear Ages

First Nuclear Age (Cold War era)

• Bipolar deterrence: US vs USSR; logic of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD)
  • Peak: ~70,000 warheads combined
  • Arms control: Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT), New START (expires 2026)
  • Goal: Stability through bilateral treaties

Second Nuclear Age (Post-Cold War optimism)

• Belief in eventual disarmament (e.g. Global Zero, CTBT, NPT extensions)
  • Rise of regional nuclear powers (India, Pakistan)
  • Cynical stability: Nuclear possession accepted; disarmament deferred
  • Result: NPT inequality entrenched; modernisation began despite disarmament talk

Third Nuclear Age (Present)

• Messy multipolarity with rising insecurity
  • Key shifts:
    • China’s strategic nuclear expansion (now ~600 warheads)
    • Russia’s tactical nuclear weapon movement to Belarus
    • NATO allies reconsidering independent deterrents
    • Israel’s unsanctioned strike on Iran breaks norms
  • Trend: From deterrence to coercion

Violation of International Norms

• Israel’s action against Iran:
  • Contravenes NPT framework and international diplomatic norms
  • No major global power condemned it → norm erosion
• Russia’s nuclear posturing over Ukraine:
  • Nuclear coercion replacing deterrence
  • Use of nukes to alter, not preserve, the status quo

Geopolitical Drivers

• China: Seeks “strategic counterbalance” to shift global power structures
• Russia: Uses nuclear threats for geopolitical leverage
• U.S. under Trump: Retreat from leadership; NATO’s internal recalibration
• Europe: France and UK re-arming and planning for independent deterrence
• Nuclear Modernisation: Across all major powers (US: $1.5–2 trillion programme)

Security & Deterrence Concerns

• Shift from passive deterrence to active threat usage
• Tactical nukes being re-deployed → Increased risk of actual use
• End of Arms Control Era:
  • New START expires in 2026
  • No successor treaty with Russia or China in sight
• Possibility of proliferation spillover to West Asia and East Asia