U.S. Nuclear Testing Debate and the Future of Global Non-Proliferation

Why in News?

• On October 29, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump, ahead of a meeting with China’s President Xi Jinping in Busan (South Korea), announced that the U.S. would resume nuclear weapons testing, claiming parity with other powers like Russia, China, and North Korea.
• His statement follows Russia’s 2025 tests of a nuclear-powered cruise missile (Burevestnik) and an underwater torpedo (Poseidon), reigniting global fears of a new nuclear arms race.

Relevance

GS-2 (International Relations):

• Undermines global non-proliferation architecture (CTBT, PTBT).
• Implications for India’s nuclear posture (No First Use, Credible Minimum Deterrence).
• Strategic stability challenges in Indo-Pacific and South Asia.
• Role of multilateral diplomacy — CTBTO, NAM, G-20, and UN disarmament forums.

GS-3 (Security):

• Nuclear deterrence, arms race dynamics, and India’s strategic autonomy.
• Implications for global peace and security architecture.

Nuclear Testing and Treaties

• First Nuclear Test: “Trinity” by the U.S. in 1945.
• Total Global Tests (as of 2025): ~2,056 nuclear detonations.
• Last Tests:
  • U.S. – 1992
  • Russia (then USSR) – 1990
  • China – 1996
  • India – 1998 (Pokhran-II)
  • North Korea – 2017 (last confirmed test)

Key Treaties and Legal Framework

1. Partial Test Ban Treaty (PTBT, 1963):
   1. Banned nuclear tests in the atmosphere, underwater, and outer space.
   2. Allowed underground testing.
   3. Signed by U.S., USSR, U.K.; India not a signatory.

• Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT, 1996):
  • Bans all nuclear explosions (civilian or military).
  • Not in force: 8 key countries (U.S., China, India, Pakistan, Iran, Israel, North Korea, Egypt) haven’t ratified.
  • U.S. & China: signed but not ratified.
  • Russia: ratified in 2000, de-ratified in 2023 amid tensions with the U.S.
• Subcritical Tests:
  • Use conventional explosives on fissile material (e.g., plutonium-239) without causing a chain reaction.
  • Allowed under CTBT — used to maintain arsenal safety without actual detonations.

Global Nuclear Arsenals (2025, Source: Federation of American Scientists)

Country	Estimated Warheads	Status
Russia	4,309	De-ratified CTBT; new delivery systems tested
U.S.	3,708	Subcritical tests continue
China	~1,000	Rapid buildup; new silos at Xinjiang
France	290	No recent tests
UK	225	Committed to moratorium
India	~164	No-testing pledge (1998)
North Korea	~40–50	Tested 6 times (2006–2017)

Environmental & Human Implications

• Underground tests still cause severe radioactive contamination of soil, water, and air.
• Nevada Test Site (U.S.) — caused long-term radiation-linked health crises.
• Semipalatinsk (Kazakhstan) — over 1.5 million affected by Soviet-era tests.
• Pokhran (India) — minor radiation but ecological risk to Thar desert.

Strategic Implications

1. Erosion of Non-Proliferation Regime:
   1. CTBT moratorium collapse may trigger arms race 2.0 among major powers.
2. Nuclear Modernisation Race:
   1. U.S. pursuing B61-13 tactical bomb; Russia developing Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle; China expanding silo fields.
3. Impact on South Asia:
   1. If China resumes testing, India may face pressure to do so for deterrence parity, forcing Pakistan to follow.
   2. Could undermine India’s 1998 self-imposed test moratorium and “credible minimum deterrence” policy.
4. Global Security Risks:
   1. Testing resurgence could undermine New START (U.S.–Russia arms reduction treaty), already under strain.

U.S. Domestic Debate

• Pro-testing lobby:
  • Argues resumption ensures arsenal reliability & technological edge.
  • Cites “aging warheads” and emerging threats (China’s buildup).
• Anti-testing experts:
  • Argue that computer simulations and subcritical tests suffice for maintenance.
  • Fear political fallout and moral loss of leadership in global arms control.

India’s Stand

• India’s nuclear policy (since 1998):
  • “No First Use” and “Credible Minimum Deterrence.”
  • Supports universal and verifiable disarmament but refuses to sign CTBT citing discriminatory nature.
• Implication: If U.S.–Russia–China resume testing, India may face strategic compulsion to test for reliability and deterrence assurance.

Geopolitical Consequences

• Asia-Pacific Flashpoints:
  • Heightened tension in Taiwan Strait, South China Sea, Korean Peninsula.
• Europe:
  • U.S.–NATO missile defense tensions with Russia’s Kaliningrad deployment.
• Middle East:
  • May embolden Iran to pursue enrichment unchecked.

Way Forward

1. Revive CTBT Negotiations: Pressure U.S. and China to ratify; re-engage Russia.
2. Establish Global Verification Regime: Strengthen CTBTO International Monitoring System (IMS).
3. Promote Regional Test Bans: Similar to Treaty of Tlatelolco (Latin America).
4. Enhance Transparency: Public declarations of test moratoriums, open inspection regimes.
5. India’s Role: Champion “Responsible Restraint Framework” through NAM and G-20 platforms.

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