Why a progressive Indian policy on Myanmar is more than plausible

Context & Background

• Myanmar junta ended emergency rule in June 2024 and announced elections for December, amid an ongoing civil war.
• The 2021 military coup dismantled the elected civilian government, triggering:
  • 5,000+ civilian deaths.
  • 2.5 million+ internally displaced persons (IDPs).
• India’s current approach: Continued engagement with the junta while ignoring the pro-democracy resistance.

Relevance : GS 2(International Relations)

India’s Current Posture: Flawed Assumptions

• Realpolitik Argument: India must protect its “interests” (security, connectivity, China containment) by engaging with whoever is in power — even the junta.
• Problem: Assumes that values (democracy, human rights) are separate from interests.
• Key Critique: India’s definition of “interests” is narrow, strategic, and short-sighted.

The Civil War Landscape in Myanmar

• Resistance Forces: Led by the National Unity Government (NUG) — an alliance of:
  • Pro-democracy activists.
  • Ethnic armed groups.
  • Civil society and trade unions.
• Their goal: Overthrow the 2008 military-drafted Constitution and establish a federal democratic union.

India’s China Problem in Myanmar

• China’s Approach: Arms sales, strategic infrastructure (e.g. Kyaukphyu port), backchannel diplomacy.
• India’s Missed Opportunity: While both can sell weapons, only India can offer democratic federalism as a model — an edge China lacks.
• By staying neutral or silent, India risks:
  • Losing goodwill among Myanmar’s future leadership.
  • Ceding long-term influence to China.

A Progressive Indian Myanmar Policy: Why It’s Plausible & Necessary

Two Core Pivots:

1. Democracy
2. Human Security

Policy Recommendations (4 Interlocking Steps)

Support Myanmar’s Pro-Democracy Forces

• How?
  • Engage with NUG and ethnic political entities.
  • Launch capacity-building programs: Constitution-making, federalism, decentralization.
  • Use India’s democratic experience as soft power leverage.
• Why?
  • Builds long-term strategic alliances.
  • Signals India’s moral and political leadership in Asia.

Immediately Halt All Weapon Sales to the Junta

• Facts & Findings:
  • Indian PSUs have reportedly sold navigation equipment and diesel to the Myanmar military post-coup (Justice For Myanmar; Frontier Myanmar).

• Why Stop?
  • Junta is using all three military branches (army, navy, air force) to attack civilians.
  • Weapons, even non-lethal, contribute to junta’s war infrastructure.
• Ethical Cost: Contradicts India’s global image as a democratic “Vishwabandhu”.

Open Cross-Border Humanitarian Corridors

• Conflict Zones near India:
  • Sagaing Region, Chin State, and Rakhine State – key hubs of displacement.
• Action Steps:
  • Reinstate Free Movement Regime (FMR), revoked in Feb 2024.
  • Partner with local NGOs and global humanitarian networks.
  • Deliver aid through Mizoram – which has local asylum infrastructure.
  • Learn from Thailand’s cross-border aid model.
• Safeguards:
  • Aid delivery must bypass the junta.
  • Use pre-vetting and strict border checks to avoid contraband leaks.

Stop Deporting Myanmar Asylum Seekers

• Current Reality:
  • 115 asylum seekers deported from Manipur (latest: June 2024).
  • 27 Chin refugees detained in Assam
• Legal & Ethical Obligations:
  • India has not ratified the 1951 Refugee Convention, but must abide by customary international law.
  • Non-refoulement principle prohibits returning refugees to danger.
  • Indian Constitution & human rights norms support humane refugee treatment.

Broader Strategic and Ethical Insights

India’s Core Strengths in Myanmar

• Democracy: Unique appeal to pro-democracy forces, unlike China.
• Federalism: A real-time model for Myanmar’s future constitution-making.
• People-to-People Ties: Especially in the Northeast (ethnic overlaps with Chin, Mizo populations).
• Regional Power Status: Enables India to shape the narrative of peace and reconstruction.

Risks of Current Policy

• Loss of moral legitimacy.
• Alienation of future Myanmar leaders.
• Strengthening China’s grip on Myanmar’s military-industrial complex.
• Increased instability on India’s Northeast border (influx of refugees, militancy).

Conclusion: Walking the Talk of “Vishwabandhu”

• India often claims to stand with the people of Myanmar.
• Now is the time to back that rhetoric with action — through a balanced approach that:
  • Supports democratic transition,
  • Respects humanitarian needs,
  • Secures India’s strategic interests, and
  • Elevates India’s regional leadership.