Before tackling stray dogs issue, India must count them properly

Supreme Court Order – August 11, 2025

• Directive: Delhi government & local bodies to immediately capture stray dogs and place them in shelters.
• Restriction: “Not a single dog picked up shall be released back on the streets/public spaces.”
• Case Type: Suo motu hearing on increasing stray dog attacks, including on infants.
• Public Reaction:
  • Support: Given rising number of dog bites and fear of rabies.
  • Criticism:
    • Delhi lacks adequate shelter capacity.
    • Practicality of housing tens of thousands of dogs questioned.
    • Concerns over long-term viability without population control or vaccination.

Relevance : GS 1(Indian Society) , GS 2(Social Issues )

Core Problem – Dog Counting & Data Gaps

• Policy Framing Issue:
  • India’s most recent nationwide stray dog count – Livestock Census 2019.
  • Delhi-specific dog census – 2016.
  • 2025 policies are being framed using 6–9-year-old estimates.
• Implications:
  • Population dynamics (birth rates, deaths, abandonment) change rapidly.
  • Outdated data distorts vaccination targets, shelter capacity planning, and resource allocation.
  • Leads to data-policy mismatch.

State-wise Data Anomalies from 2019 Livestock Census

• Tamil Nadu:
  • 4.4 lakh stray dogs recorded.
  • 8.3 lakh dog bites in the same year – ~2 bites per stray dog.
  • High bite rate raises suspicion of undercounted dog population.
• Manipur:
  • Recorded 0 stray dogs in census (implausible).
  • 5,500 dog bite cases recorded the same year.
• Odisha:
  • 17.3 lakh dogs (2nd highest in India).
  • 1.7 lakh bites – ~100 bites per 1,000 dogs, much lower than Tamil Nadu’s 1,900 per 1,000 dogs.
• Inference:
  • Bite data (hospital-reported) is reliable because rabies fears compel victims to seek treatment.
  • Therefore, discrepancy lies in dog population data, not bite data.

Data-Driven Policy Potential

• Learning Opportunity:
  • Tamil Nadu (high bite rate) could learn preventive measures from Odisha (low bite rate).
  • But absence of accurate population data prevents targeted policy replication.
• Statistical Ratios:
  • Tamil Nadu – ~1,900 bites per 1,000 dogs (extremely high).
  • Odisha – ~100 bites per 1,000 dogs (low).
• Current Scenario:
  • No inter-state knowledge sharing based on bite-per-dog ratios.

Rabies Elimination Strategy

• WHO Findings:
  • 99% of human rabies cases are due to bites from infected dogs.
  • Strategic mass dog vaccination = most cost-effective prevention method.
  • Target: Vaccinate 70% of dogs and maintain for 3 consecutive years to break transmission cycle.
• India’s National Action Plan (2018):
  • Adopted WHO approach.
  • Stressed on strategic, sustained vaccination over culling or mass sheltering.
• Goa Case Study (Nature Journal):
  • Vaccinated 70% of dogs statewide.
  • Outcome (2019):
    • Human rabies cases eliminated.
    • Monthly canine rabies cases reduced by 92%.
  • Goa had highest dog bite rate per capita in 2019 (1,412 per 1 lakh people) but successfully cut rabies deaths to zero through vaccination, not mass confinement.

Policy Challenges & Gaps

• Sheltering Constraints:
  • Urban areas like Delhi lack capacity for mass capture and lifelong housing.
  • Shelter maintenance cost per dog is significantly higher than vaccination costs.
• Data Reliability:
  • Census undercounts lead to flawed vaccination drives & incorrect shelter capacity planning.
• Resource Allocation:
  • Without accurate numbers, vaccination supply chains and medical preparedness are inefficient.
• Legal & Ethical Concerns:
  • Mass confinement may violate animal welfare norms unless humane conditions are ensured.
  • May lead to overcrowded shelters with disease outbreaks if infrastructure is inadequate.

Way Forward – Evidence-Based Recommendations

• Immediate:
  • Update dog population census (preferably via rapid digital survey methods, using GIS tagging).
  • Simultaneously expand vaccination drives to at least 70% coverage.
• Medium-Term:
  • Implement state-wise best-practice sharing (Odisha-type low bite rate strategies).
  • Prioritise vaccination and sterilisation over mass sheltering.
  • Establish rabies surveillance units linked to Integrated Disease Surveillance Programme.
• Long-Term:
  • Institutionalise annual dog population monitoring.
  • Create centralised database linking dog bite incidents, rabies cases, and vaccination records.
  • Public awareness campaigns to promote responsible pet ownership and avoid abandonment.