Early Warning For Heatwaves Sees Huge Improvement

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Context:

Indian scientists have, for the first time, been able to predict heatwaves even one season in advance.

Relevance:

GS III- Environment (Climate change)

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In a recent study, the India’s Ministry of Earth Sciences have documented for the first time that Indian heatwaves can be predicted even one season in advance.
They used 37 years (1981-2017) of hindcasts from the Monsoon Mission Coupled Climate Forecast Model (MMCFS).
It documented the seasonal predictions of frequency and duration of Indian heatwaves during April-June are very useful.

A heat wave is a period of abnormally high temperatures, more than the normal maximum temperature that occurs during the summer season in the North-Western and South Central parts of India.
Heat waves typically occur between March and June, and in some rare cases even extend till July.
Higher daily peak temperatures and longer, more intense heat waves are becoming increasingly frequent globally due to climate change.

The heat wave is considered when the maximum temperature of a station reaches at least 40°C for Plains and at least 30°C for Hilly regions.
If the normal maximum temperature of a station is less than or equal to 40°C, then an increase of 5°C to 6°C from the normal temperature is considered to be heat wave condition.
Further, an increase of 7°C or more from the normal temperature is considered as severe heat wave condition.
If the normal maximum temperature of a station is more than 40°C, then an increase of 4°C to 5°C from the normal temperature is considered to be heat wave condition. Further, an increase of 6°C or more is considered as severe heat wave condition.
Additionally, if the actual maximum temperature remains 45°C or more irrespective of normal maximum temperature, a heat wave is declared.

The health impacts of Heat Waves typically involve dehydration, heat cramps, heat exhaustion and/or heat stroke.
It also causes heat cramps, fatigue, weakness, dizziness, headache, nausea, vomiting, muscle cramps and sweating.
The extreme temperatures and resultant atmospheric conditions adversely affect people living in these regions as they cause physiological stress, sometimes resulting in death.

Source: The Hindu