- Indian economy staging a broad based recovery across sectors, positioning to ascend to pre-pandemic growth path in FY23
- Retail inflation is back within RBI’s target range in November 2022
- Direct Tax collections for the period April-November 2022 remains buoyant
- Enhanced Employment generation seen in the declining urban unemployment rate and in the faster net registration in Employee Provident Fund
- Creating public goods to enhance opportunities, efficiencies and ease of living, trust-based governance, enhancing agricultural productivity and promoting the private sector as a co-partner in development is the focus of the government reforms
- Cleaner balance sheets led to enhanced lending by financial institutionsGrowth in credit offtake, increased private capex to usher virtuous investment cycle
- Non-food credit offtake by Scheduled Commercial Banks growing in double digits since April 2022
- Gross Non-Performing Assets (GNPA) ratio of SCBs has fallen to a seven-year low of 5.0
- Social sector expenditure (Centre and States combined) increases to Rs. 21.3 lakh crore in FY23 (BE) from Rs. 9.1 lakh crore in FY16
- Central and State Government’s budgeted expenditure on health sector touched 2.1% of GDP in FY23 (BE) and 2.2% in FY22 (RE) against 1.6% in FY21
- More than 220 crore COVID vaccine doses administered
- Survey highlights the findings of the 2022 report of the UNDP on Multidimensional Poverty Index which says that 41.5 crore people exit poverty in India between 2005-06 and 2019-20
- India declared Net Zero Pledge, to achieve net zero emissions goal by 2070
- A mass movement LIFE– Life style for Environment launched
- National Green Hydrogen Mission to enable India to be energy independent by 2047
- Private investment in agriculture increases to 9.3% in 2020-21
- Free foodgrains to about 81.4 crore beneficiaries under the National Food Security Act for one year
- About 11.3 crore farmers were covered under PM KISAN in its April-July 2022-23 payment cycle
- India stands at the forefront to promote millets through the International Year of Millets initiative
- Investment of ₹47,500 crores under the PLI schemes in FY22- 106% of the designated target for the year
- India’s e-commerce market is projected to grow at 18 per cent annually through 2025
- Merchandise exports of US$ 332.8 billion for April-December 2022
- India is the largest recipient of remittances globally receiving US$ 100 billion in 2022
- PM GatiShakti National Master Plan creates comprehensive database for integrated planning and synchronised implementation across Ministries/ Departments
- UPI-based transactions grew in value (121 per cent) and volume (115 per cent) terms, between 2019-2022, paving the way for its international adoption.
Union Minister for Finance and Corporate Affairs, Smt. Nirmala Sitharaman, presented the Economic Survey 2022-23 in the Union Parliament today. The highlights of the Survey are as follows:
Chapter 1) State of the Economy 2022-23: Recovery Complete
The Indian economy is in a broad-based recovery, driven by high private consumption, strong GDP growth forecast for FY24 (6-6.8%), increased capital expenditure, strong credit growth to MSME sector, controlled inflation, strong Rupee performance, and buoyant Direct Tax collections.
The decline in urban unemployment and growth in employee provident fund registration also show increased employment generation. The economy is expected to be further boosted by expansion of public digital platforms and measures to increase manufacturing output.
Chapter 2) India’s Medium Term Growth Outlook: with Optimism and Hope
The Indian economy underwent reforms 2014-2022 that strengthened its efficiency and emphasized improving ease of living and business. These reforms included creating public goods, adopting trust-based governance, partnering with private sector for development, and improving agricultural productivity.
During this period, the economy faced balance sheet stress and slowed growth due to credit boom and global shocks.
However, the economy is expected to grow faster in the coming decade as global shocks fade and efficiency gains from formalization, financial inclusion, and digital reforms take effect. A fresh credit cycle has begun with double-digit growth in bank credit, and the economy is prepared to grow at its potential in the medium term.
Chapter 3) Fiscal Developments: Revenue Relish
The Union Government finances performed well in FY23 due to the economic recovery, increased revenue from direct taxes and GST, and realistic budget assumptions. The YoY growth of Gross Tax Revenue was 15.5% (Apr-Nov 2022) due to growth in direct taxes and GST.
Direct taxes grew higher than their average and GST collections increased 24.8% YoY (Apr-Dec 2022). The government continued its emphasis on capital expenditure (Capex) while incentivizing states through loans and increased borrowing limits.
The Capex focus on infrastructure (roads, railways, housing) will positively impact medium-term growth and keep the debt to GDP sustainable in the medium run.
Chapter 4) Monetary Management and Financial Intermediation: A Good Year
The Union Government’s finances performed well in FY23 due to economic recovery, growth in direct taxes and GST, and realistic budget assumptions. Gross Tax Revenue saw a YoY growth of 15.5% April-November 2022, driven by robust growth in direct taxes and GST.
Direct tax growth was higher than average and GST collections increased 24.8% YoY April-December 2022. The government continued to emphasize capital expenditure (Capex) despite higher revenue expenditure needs, with Capex steadily increasing from 1.7% of GDP to 2.5% of GDP in FY22 PA.
The Centre incentivized state governments to prioritize Capex with interest-free loans and higher borrowing ceilings, focusing on infrastructure-intensive sectors like roads, railways, and housing/urban affairs. This Capex-led growth strategy will sustainably increase debt to GDP in the medium run and keep the growth-interest rate differential positive.
Chapter 5) Prices and Inflation: Successful Tight-Rope Walking
India managed to curb the rise in prices in 2022 despite a return of high inflation in advanced economies. The retail inflation rate in India peaked at 7.8% in April, but the overshoot was one of the lowest globally.
The government used various measures like reducing export duty, increasing import duty, and imposing export prohibition on certain products.
The RBI also helped control inflation through monetary policy. The government’s intervention in the housing sector, low home loan interest rates, and the overall increase in housing prices indicate a revival in the housing finance sector. India’s inflation management has been successful compared to advanced economies still facing sticky inflation rates.
Chapter 6) Social Infrastructure and Employment: Big Tent
The Indian government increased spending in the social sector, reaching 2.1% of GDP in FY23 for health sector budgeted expenditure, up from 1.6% in FY21. Social sector expenditure rose from Rs 9.1 lakh crore in FY16 to Rs 21.3 lakh crore in FY23. 41.5 crore people have escaped poverty between 2005-06 and 2019-20 according to the UNDP’s 2022 report.
The Aspirational Districts Program and eShram portal have been implemented for better governance and to create a national database for unorganised workers. 28.5 crore workers have been registered on eShram as of December 2022. JAM, combined with DBT, has brought marginalized sections into the financial system.
Aadhaar played a role in Co-WIN platform and vaccine administration. Unemployment has decreased and education improved. Out-of-pocket health expenditure as a % of total health expenditure has declined.
IMR, U5MR, and NMR have fallen. Over 220 crore COVID vaccine doses have been administered. 22 crore beneficiaries have been verified under Ayushman Bharat, with over 1.54 lakh health centers operational. India declared a net zero goal by 2070, achieved 40% electric capacity from non-fossil fuels ahead of 2030, and aims to reduce emissions intensity by 45% by 2030.
A mass movement for environmental protection was launched, and a sovereign green bond framework was issued. India aims to be energy independent with 5 MMT of green hydrogen per annum by 2030, adding 125 GW of renewable energy and reducing GHG emissions.
The solar power capacity stood at 61.6 GW as of October 2022, with renewable investments at USD 78.1 billion. Over 68 lakh toilets were constructed under the National Mission on Sustainable Habitat.
Chapter 7) Climate Change and Environment Charts & Tables
India declared the Net Zero Pledge to reach net zero emissions by 2070. It has surpassed its target of 40% installed electric capacity from non-fossil fuels ahead of 2030. By 2030, the non-fossil fuel installed capacity is expected to be over 500 GW, reducing average emissions by 29% compared to 2014-15.
India aims to cut the emissions intensity of its GDP by 45% by 2030 from 2005 levels and have 50% of electric power come from non-fossil energy by 2030. A lifestyle movement called “LIFE” was launched and in November 2022, a Sovereign Green Bond Framework was issued.
The National Green Hydrogen Mission was launched to make India energy independent by 2047 with a goal of producing 5 million metric tonnes of green hydrogen per year by 2030, reducing imports and creating over 6 lakh jobs.
The National Action Plan on Climate Change highlights progress on 8 missions and India is becoming a popular destination for renewables with USD 78.1 billion in investments. 62.8 lakh household toilets and 6.2 lakh public toilets have been constructed under the National Mission on Sustainable Habitat.
Chapter 8) Agriculture and Food Management
The Indian government has implemented measures to improve the agriculture sector, including increasing crop and livestock productivity, supporting farmers with price guarantees, promoting crop diversification, improving market infrastructure, and investing in agriculture infrastructure through the Agriculture Infrastructure Fund.
Private investment in agriculture increased to 9.3% in 2020-21. MSP has been set at 1.5 times the average cost of production for all mandated crops since 2018.
Institutional credit to the agricultural sector grew to 18.6 lakh crore in 2021-22. Foodgrain production in India sustained an increase and reached 315.7 million tonnes in 2021-22. Free foodgrain was provided to 81.4 crore beneficiaries under the National Food Security Act for one year starting January 1, 2023. 11.3 crore farmers were covered under the scheme in its April-July 2022-23 payment cycle.
An online bidding system was put in place under the National Agriculture Market (e-NAM) scheme with 1.74 crore farmers and 2.39 lakh traders.
Organic farming is being promoted through Farmer Producer Organizations under the Paramparagat Krishi Vikas Yojana. India is also promoting millets through the International Year of Millets initiative.
Chapter 9) Industry: Steady Recovery
The industrial sector’s GVA rose 3.7% in the first half of FY22-23, higher than the average 2.8% growth in the first half of the last decade. The growth is driven by private consumption, exports, investment demand, and strengthened balance sheets.
The industry has a robust supply response to the demand stimulus and PMI manufacturing has remained in the expansion zone for 18 months. MSMEs credit has grown by 30% since Jan 2022 and large industry credit has grown by double digits since Oct 2022.
India has become the second largest mobile phone manufacturer, with a three-fold increase in electronics exports. FDI in the pharma industry has quadrupled and the PLI schemes introduced for 14 categories are expected to bring in ₹4 lakh crore in investment over 5 years.
Investment of ₹47,500 crore was seen in FY22, resulting in production/sales of ₹3.85 lakh crore and employment generation of 3.0 lakh. Over 39,000 compliances have been reduced and 3500 provisions decriminalized as of Jan 2023.
Chapter 10) Services: Source of Strength
The services sector in India is expected to grow 9.1% in FY23, with a robust expansion observed in PMI services since July 2022. India’s services exports remained resilient during the pandemic and increased demand for digital support and infrastructure modernization. Credit to the services sector has grown over 16% since July 2022, with US$ 7.1 billion in FDI equity inflows in the sector in FY22.
Contact-intensive services are set to reclaim pre-pandemic growth rates in FY23. The real estate and tourism sectors are showing signs of revival, and digital platforms are transforming India’s financial services. The e-commerce market is projected to grow 18% annually till 2025.
India’s merchandise exports were US$ 332.8 billion for April-December 2022, with India diversifying its markets and increasing exports to Brazil, South Africa, and Saudi Arabia. India is the largest recipient of remittances in the world, receiving US$ 100 billion in 2022, and is the sixth largest foreign exchange reserves holder in the world. India’s external debt is well shielded by its foreign exchange reserves, and the country has relatively low levels of total debt as a percentage of Gross National Income
Chapter 11) Physical and Digital Infrastructure
Government’s Vision for Infrastructure Development
Public Private Partnerships
- In-Principal Approval granted to 56 projects with Total Project Cost of ₹57,870.1 crore under the VGF Scheme, from 2014-15 to 2022-23.
- IIPDF Scheme with ₹150 crore outlay from FY 23-25 was notified by the government on 03 November, 2022.
National Infrastructure Pipeline
- 89,151 projects costing ₹141.4 lakh crore under different stages of implementation
- 1009 projects worth ₹5.5 lakh crore completed
- NIP and Project Monitoring Group (PMG) portal linkage to fast-track approvals/ clearances for projects
National Monetisation Pipeline
- ₹ 9.0 lakh crore is the estimated cumulative investment potential.
- ₹ 0.9 lakh crore monetisation target achieved against expected ₹0.8 lakh crore in FY22.
- FY23 target is envisaged to be ₹1.6 lakh crore (27 per cent of overall NMP Target)
- PM GatiShakti National Master Plan creates comprehensive database for integrated planning and synchronised implementation across Ministries/ Departments.
- Aims to improve multimodal connectivity and logistics efficiency while addressing the critical gaps for the seamless movement of people and goods.
Electricity Sector and Renewables
- As on 30 September 2022, the government has sanctioned the entire target capacity of 40 GW for the development of 59 Solar Parks in 16 states.
- 17.2 lakh GWh electricity generated during the year FY22 compared to 15.9 lakh GWh during FY21.
- The total installed power capacity (industries having demand of 1 Mega Watt (MW) and above) increased from 460.7 GW on 31 March 2021 to 482.2 GW on 31 March 2022.
Making Indian Logistics Globally Competitive
- National Logistics Policy envisions to develop a technologically enabled, integrated, cost-efficient, resilient, sustainable and trusted logistics ecosystem in the country for accelerated and inclusive growth.
- Rapid increase in National Highways (NHs) /Roads Construction with 10457 km NHs/roads constructed in FY22 compared to 6061 km in FY16.
- Budget expenditure increased from ₹1.4 lakh crore in FY20 to ₹2.4 lakh crore in FY23 giving renewed push to Capital expenditure.
- 2359 Kisan rails transported approximately 7.91 lakh tonnes of perishables, as of October 2022.
- More than one crore air passengers availed the benefit of the UDAN scheme since its inception in 2016.
- Near doubling of capacity of major ports in 8 years.
- Inland Vessels Act 2021 replaced 100-year-old Act to ensure hassle free movement of Vessels promoting Inland Water Transport.
India’s Digital Public Infrastructure
Unified Payment Interface (UPI)
- UPI-based transactions grew in value (121 per cent) and volume (115 per cent) terms, between 2019-22, paving the way for its international adoption.
Telephone and Radio – For Digital Empowerment
- Total telephone subscriber base in India stands at 117.8 crore (as of Sept,22), with 44.3 per cent of subscribers in rural India.
- More than 98 per cent of the total telephone subscribers are connected wirelessly.
- The overall tele-density in India stood at 84.8 per cent in March 22.
- 200 per cent increase in rural internet subscriptions between 2015 and 2021.
- Prasar Bharati (India’s autonomous public service broadcaster) – broadcasts in 23 languages, 179 dialects from 479 stations. Reaches 92 per cent of the area and 99.1 per cent of the total population.
Digital Public Goods
- Achieved low-cost accessibility since the launch of Aadhaar in 2009
- Under the government schemes, MyScheme, TrEDS, GEM, e-NAM, UMANG has transformed market place and has enabled citizens to access services across sectors
- Under Account Aggregator, the consent-based data sharing framework is currently live across over 110 crore bank accounts.
- Open Credit Enablement Network aims towards democratising lending operations while allowing end-to-end digital loan applications
- National AI portal has published 1520 articles, 262 videos, and 120 government initiatives and is being viewed as viewed as a tool for overcoming the language barrier e.g. ‘Bhashini’.
- Legislations are being introduced for enhanced user privacy and creating an ecosystem for standard, open, and interoperable protocols underlining robust data governance.