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INDIA STILL IN SECOND TRANSMISSION STAGE

Focus: GS-III Disaster Management, Science and Technology

Why in news?

  • Senior scientists and health officials have said that India currently is showing no evidence of any community transmission and that enough tests were being done to pick up any early indication of third stage transmission.
  • So far there is no evidence for the need to go in for mass testing.

India’s Handling of the Spread

  • India started proactive action from January 17 onwards, whereas our first cases came in the end of January.
  • The country had put in early measures to ensure that transmission stays localised and any indications otherwise are picked up.
  • ICMR will be getting the results of their Random Sampling by 18th March 2020, which will give an idea of where we are headed.

Stages of spread of Coronavirus

There are Four states of the spread of the disease:

  • Stage 1 is getting imported cases
  • Stage 2 is local transmission
  • Stage 3 is community transmission
  • Stage 4 is when it turns into an epidemic.
4 STAGES OF A PANDEMIC Coronavirus
HOW WE CAN KEEP 
IT IN STAGE 11-111 
Quarantine I Anyone coming from countries affected 
by Covid-19 outbreak is being quarantined for 14 days, 
regardless of symptoms 
Contact tracing I If a person has been found positive, 
everyone he or she may have come in contact with is 
Out under surveillance. If they show any symptoms, 
they are tested and quarantined too 
Stop mass gathering I Most states have closed 
schools, cinema halls or aren't organising public events 
Awareness public is being made aware of hand 
hygiene and respiratory etiquette 
Prelnration Scaling up infrastructure—testing 
facility, isolation beds and acute management of 
positive cases—taking place simultaneously 
transmission 
from 
positive 
STAGE Il 
STAGE IV 
Disease takes 
shape cf an 
epidemic 
with no clear 
endpoint. 
Italy and 
China are 
already 
there 
STAGE 111 
Disease 
spreads in 
community, 
large 
areas gets 
Cases 
mostly 
imported 
from 
affected 
countries 
STAGE I 
4,590 
O'.'crall capacity 
far daily testing 
France 
India is here 
• 90 
TESTING 
Tcsting» Samples each lab 
CAPACITY 
can test daily 
GLOBAL RATE OF POSITIVE TESTS 
1.3% 
utilisation 
it present 
Number Of tests and positivity rate in India 
No of tests 
No. of positive 
78 
6,500 
performed 
cases 
South Korea 
4.2% 
56,652 tests 
of I„'bb 
positive, 
25,568 results 
awaited 
fig.•res Graph'" Sunil Singh 
Italy 
9,462 tests, of 
positive, 
some results 
awaited 
UK 
pcsiti'.'ltv,' rate 
concluded 
tests, of which 
13 positive 
Austria 
0.6% 
321 tests, 
of Ahich 
2 positive, 
some 
results 
awaited 
India 
1.2% 
78 positive cases 
(Positivity rate may be 
2.2% 
762 tests, 
Of Rhich 
17 positive, 
179 results 
awaited 
3.1% 
concluded 
tests, cf 
which 
14 positive 
higher because patients 
being tested are either 
those with travel history 
to affected country 
their contacts)

Is India not testing enough?

  • Several experts have noted that India isn’t testing enough, which could be the reason for its relatively low number of COVID-19 cases, while also exposing the country to an outbreak.
  • Currently, 63 laboratories (62 Virus Research and Diagnostic Laboratories and 1 National Centre for Disease Control) are functioning to test COVID-19, and nine laboratories are expected to start functioning shortly.
  • The ICMR has also noted that it has intensified random sample testing of people who display flu-like symptoms but don’t have a travel history to any of the coronavirus-hit countries.

Does the spread of Virus slow down because of Summer?

Since the virus hasn’t seen many seasons, we cannot say conclusively that the virus will slow down with higher temperature.



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