What will be effect of rising military spending?

NATO’s New Defence Target: A Paradigm Shift

• New Target: NATO pledged to raise defence and security-related spending to 5% of member GDP by 2035, up from the long-standing 2% target.
• Objective: Claimed to be a response to rising global threats—especially Russia, Iran, and hybrid warfare scenarios.
• NATO Share: With 32 members, NATO accounts for 55% of global defence spending ($1,506 billion in 2024).

Relevance : GS 2(International Relations) , GS 3(Defence ,Internal Security)

Global Military Expenditure: Rising Rapidly

• 2024 Global Military Spending: $2,718 billion, a 9.4% YoY increase—highest since 1988.
  • As % of World GDP: 2.5% in 2024, rising from a low of 2.1% in 1998.
  • Cold War Peak: 6.1% of GDP in 1960.
• Trigger Events:
  • Russia–Ukraine war
  • Israel–Gaza conflict
  • Israel–Iran and India–Pakistan conflicts in 2025

Development vs. Defence: Stark Contrasts

• UN Budget (2025): $44 billion
  • Only $6 billion raised by mid-year → Now downsizing to $29 billion.
  • Contrast: U.S. spent $1 billion in 12 days just on missile defence in Israel-Iran war.
• USAID Closure:
  • Trump-era cuts to foreign aid ($50–60B/yr) risk 14 million additional deaths by 2030, incl. 5 million children, per Lancet.
• Crowding-Out Effect:
  • Study (Ikegami & Wang, 116 countries): Defence spending reduces health expenditure, especially in LMICs.
• Examples of Extreme Military Burden:
  • Lebanon: 29% of GDP
  • Ukraine: 34% of GDP

India-Specific Concerns

• Current Defence Spending: 2.3% of GDP (₹6.81 lakh crore in 2024–25)
  • Extra ₹50,000 crore sanctioned after Operation Sindoor (2025).
• Health vs. Defence:
  • Ayushman Bharat allocation (2023–24): ₹7,200 crore (for 58 crore people).
  • Public health spending: 1.84% of GDP (target: 2.5%) → Far lower than OECD average ~10%.
• Policy Dilemma:
  • Rising public support for militarisation post-conflict may stifle long-term investments in education, health, and climate.

Impact on Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

• SDG Setbacks:
  • SDG 1 (No Poverty): $70B/year could end extreme poverty; just 0.1% of high-income countries’ GNI.
  • SDG 3 (Health): $1/year/person on NCD prevention → 7 million lives saved by 2030.
• Climate Costs:
  • NATO’s 3.5% defence GDP goal would emit +200 million tonnes CO₂ annually.
  • 2024 was the hottest year ever recorded → Escalating need for climate mitigation spending.

Global Peace Trends

• Global Peace Index (2023):
  • Militarisation increased in 108 countries.
  • Most conflicts since World War II witnessed in 2023.
• Scholarly View:
  • Fear of Russia is exaggerated:
    • Russia’s economy is 25x smaller and military spending 10x lower than NATO.
    • Militarisation driven more by geopolitical narratives than actual capability gaps.

Key Takeaways

• 5% GDP on defence = less on health, education, climate.
• Huge opportunity cost for sustainable development and human welfare.
• Militarisation ≠ Peace: Peace also means adequate public goods, not just absence of war.
• Global South and civil society must assert budgetary justice in global forums like the UN, G20, and BRICS.