Context:
As events unfold rapidly in Bangladesh, it is also time to reflect on February 2009, when then-new Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina faced a significant crisis shortly after taking office. The mutiny of the Bangladesh Rifles (BDR), a paramilitary force, ultimately failed, as Sheikh Hasina had just ascended to power through “clean” elections, enjoying strong support from women and youth without military interference. However, over her 15-year tenure, much of this support seemed squandered.
Relevance:
GS2- India and its Neighborhood- Relations
Mains Question:
India can capitalise on its strong development partnership with Bangladesh and work closely with the interim government, the army, and the people. Discuss in the context of the recent events in Bangladesh. (15 Marks, 250 Words).
Growing Disconnect:
- A growing disconnect emerged with the 2024 elections, marked by the Opposition’s boycott, shrinking democratic space, erosion of human rights, economic downturn, and significant youth unemployment—a demographic that previously benefited from economic growth under Hasina.
- When student protests erupted, led by the Anti-Discrimination Student Movement, the government’s heavy-handed response, treating the protesters as enemies of the state and resorting to violence, marked a turning point for Hasina.
Change in the Army’s Alignment:
- Considering public opinion and challenges, Bangladesh Army chief General Waker-uz-Zaman has stepped into a situation distinct from the 2007 coup led by General Moeen U. Ahmed.
- Back then, the army’s intervention was necessary to curb anarchy and violence instigated by major political parties, restore governance, and facilitate elections.
- In 2024, the army is perceived as aligning with public sentiment by removing a beleaguered Prime Minister and reinstating democratic processes. This shift has made the army more vulnerable and responsive to public opinion.
Choice of the Head of the Interim Government:
- An indication of this vulnerability is the acceptance of Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus as the head of the interim government chosen by the students.
- Typically, coup leaders appoint uninspiring technocrats to run the country under their strict control, rather than a popular leader who commands widespread respect both domestically and internationally. However, the army’s vulnerability may be the silver lining Bangladesh needs.
- Mr. Yunus is viewed as a strong advocate for democratic values and the rule of law. He has been critical of Hasina due to her treatment of him.
- While he once harbored political ambitions and wanted to form his own party, he is not aligned with the two main parties, the Awami League and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party. This situation might provide the opportunity he needs to establish a third force in Bangladesh.
Persisting Challenges:
- However, forming the interim government is not the only challenge at present. There is also the serious issue of the students’ movement being co-opted by those oppressed under the previous regime, those who boycotted the elections, or those who supported from abroad.
- These include not only the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and the opposition but also the banned Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami, which had instigated Islamic jihadist violence in 2006-07.
- Violence against Awami League supporters and their properties continues, and symbols of Bangladesh’s liberation, including statues of Sheikh Mujibur Rehman, are being destroyed, with the Hindu minority community under attack.
- Incorporating such polarized forces into the interim government will weaken both Mr. Yunus and the army, inevitably boosting anti-India elements.
Role of India:
- While India was the first country to highlight “contemporary forms of religiophobia against non-Abrahamic religions” in the United Nations Security Council in 2021 and in the UN General Assembly in 2022, it has hesitated to address this issue more assertively with its neighbors and the West, aside from the usual expressions of concern.
- Recent events in Bangladesh have demonstrated, once again, that if India does not take the lead, no one else will.
- Reflecting the situations in Myanmar and the Maldives, the events in Bangladesh are more similar to those in Myanmar than in Sri Lanka.
- After three consecutive elections in Myanmar, the coup leaders are struggling to maintain control over the people and ethnic groups, potentially facing collapse sooner rather than later.
- Similarly, after four consecutive elections in Bangladesh, where democratic aspirations have been heightened, the military will find its role significantly restricted.
Conclusion:
For India, the scenario resembles what happened in the Maldives, where it supported President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih without engaging with the opposition, leading to challenges when the opposition gained power. However, India’s advantage lies in its strong development partnerships and projects that benefit the people, whether in the Maldives, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, or now in Bangladesh. India’s best strategy is to collaborate closely with Mr. Yunus, the military, and the people.
